我国财政收入与财政支出关系的实证研究被引量：28

An Empirical Study on the Correlation between the Fiscal Revenue and the Fiscal Expenditure in China

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摘要运用时间序列经济计量技术对1950～2001年我国财政收入和财政支出的关系进行实证研究,发现:(1)我国的财政收支之间不存在Granger因果关系,财政收支之间不存在显著的相互促进效应;(2)我国的财政收支之间具备长期均衡的协整关系和短期动态调整机制;(3)实证结果显示,需要充分重视我国财政收支之间的有机联系,在继续研究如何增加我国财政收入的同时,研究和着手解决我国的财政支出问题,以实现我国财政收支的良性互动。 After making an empirical analysis on the fiscal revenue and the fiscal expenditure in China from 1950 to 2001 by means of time series economic measurement technology, it discovers that there is no Granger causality or distinct mutual promoting effects between the fiscal revenue and the fiscal expenditure in China, and that there is longterm cointegration and shortterm dynamic adjusting mechanism between the fiscal revenue and the fiscal expenditure in China. The empirical result indicates that we should pay full attention to the organic relations between the fiscal revenue and the fiscal expenditure. We should study and solve the problem of the fiscal expenditure in China while keeping on studying how to increase China' s fiscal revenue in order to realize the good coreaction between fiscal revenue and the fiscal expenditure in China.

作者许雄奇朱秋白

机构地区重庆工学院经济学系

出处《财经研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2004年第3期49-57,共9页 Journal of Finance and Economics

关键词财政收入财政支出协整误差修正模型Granger因果关系 fiscal revenue the fiscal expenditure cointegration error correction model Granger causality

分类号 F812.4 [经济管理—财政学]

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