摘要
中国证券市场股指的波动是否具有周期性?如果有,又如何测定呢?基于时间序列的谱分析方法,采用应用统计软件SAS SPECTRA,本文对中国证券市场的市场指数进行了分析,得到了上证综指的谱密度与频率、上证指数的周期数据以及上证指数周期分析等结果 结果表明,证券市场的周期性波动确实存在,且主周期内嵌套次周期.波动周期与裴波那切数列奇妙地一致,证券市场有自身的运行规律.这些结论也证实了证券市场与宏观经济发展有相互关联。
Is there any cycle about the fluctuation of stock index in Chinese Securities Market? If it does exists, how to survey it? The stock indexes in HuShen securities market were analysed based on the methods of spectral in time series and the statistical software 'SAS. SPECTRA'. The spectral density and frequency of Hu stock index, the cycle data in Hu stock index, and the cycle analysis of Hu stock index were obtained. These results show that the cyle of fluctuation does exist, the main cycle includes bycycle, and the cycle of fluctuation is curiously corresponding with fseries. These results also show that the securities market has its rule. Moreover, these results verify the conclusion that there are interrelated and interacted relationships between the securities market and the macroeconomic development.
出处
《湖南大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第5期88-91,共4页
Journal of Hunan University:Natural Sciences
关键词
股指波动
谱分析
证券市场
fluctuation of stock index
analysing cycle
securities market
