摘要
国内生产总值(GDP)是体现一个国家的经济实力、发展水平和生活水准的综合性指标。将GDP年度序列数据中的周期趋势分离出来,不仅是一个统计技术问题,更是一个研究经济运行规律的方法问题。按定基指数调整后的真实GDP年度序列在去除时间趋势之后存在明显的周期性波动,这种周期波动与我国转型阶段制度供给的阶段性高度吻合,制度供给是经济系统运行周期波动的内生性因素。
Gross domestic product （GDP） is a composite index of a nation＇ s economic power, development, and living standard. To separate cyclical trends from annual series data of GDP is not only a statistical technical problem but also related to methods to research economic operation laws. Real GDP annual series, adjusted by fixed base index, show obvious cyclical fluctuation when separated by time trend. The cyclical fluctuation tallies with different stages of the institutional supply during China＇s transition period. Institutional supply is an endogenous factor to induce cyclical fluctuation of economic system operation.
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第4期38-45,共8页
Economist
关键词
GDP
时间趋势
周期
制度供给
GDP, Time trend, Cycle, Institutional supply
