摘要
系统安全性预测对预防事故起到至关重要的作用,而预测模型的正确选择是预测的关键。本文就目前安全性预测的原则、预测模型的复杂程度、特点和选择等若干问题进行了分析,并就系统安全性预测中如何处理这些问题进行了探讨。在综合分析的基础上,建立了合理的预测系统。组合预测利用各种预测方法提供的有用信息,有效提高了预测精度,改变由于预测模型选择不合理而带来得预测误差。
It is a very important to prevent accidents for system safety forecast, and choice of forecast model is a key to improve exactness. Some problems, such as forecast model complexity, forecast model characterstics, method choice and so on, are analyzed and evaluated.How to deal with these problems also are researched and resolving ways are given. A forecast system for system safety forecast is established.
出处
《辽宁工程技术大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2003年第4期533-535,共3页
Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science)
