摘要
目的 反映广东省艾滋病病毒 /艾滋病 (HIV/AIDS)流行的情况 ,做为监测结果的有效补充 ,为制定防治策略提供依据。方法 利用国际通用的组分法和Epimodel模型 ,结合定性和定量方法 ,以现有的监测资料和专题调查数据为基础进行估计和预测。结果 静脉吸毒已成为广东省HIV感染的重要途径 ,其次是性途径 ;估计 1 999年广东省HIV感染人数为 1 85万～ 3 2 8万 ,按目前的防治力度 ,在不考虑其它因素改变的情况下 ,到 2 0 1 0年感染人数将达 1 4 9万～ 2 5 3万 ,并出现 5 9万～ 9 0万AIDS病人。结论 尽管广东省的监测系统不断发展完善 ,但仍不能反映实际流行水平 ,在制定防治规划时必须结合科学的估计和预测 ,就广东省流行情况 ,要将 2 0 1 0年HIV感染人数控制在 9万以下 。
Objective Mirroring the actual epidemic of HIV/AIDS in Guangdong Province in order to guide the formulation of the evidence-based prevention strategy with the data from the surveillance system;Methods Integration the Qantitative and qualitative approaches were integrated into the interanationally applied Epimodel module,using the results from the surveillance and jthe special survey to estimate and project HIV/AIDS epidemic in the provime Results Druginjection and active sexuality are the main paths of transmission of HIV in Guangdong;the estimated HIV cases and about 18,500～32,800 in 1999 and by the end of 2010,they will be up to 149,000～253,000 HIV caes with 59,000～90,000 AIDS cases;Conclusion In spite of so many years's development of surveillance system in Guangdong,the actual situation of HIV/AIDS is still under-reported significantly The formulation of the prevention strategey should be based on the scientific estimation and projection as well as the surveillance data In order to meet the demands of the provincial mid and long term program,more effective projects targeted prevention shoud be put into effect without hesitation
出处
《中国艾滋病性病》
CAS
2003年第3期142-144,共3页
Chinese Journal of Aids & STD
基金
联合国开发规划署资助 (项目编号:CPR/ 96 / 40 2 )项目名称:多部合作预防控制艾滋病
