摘要
目的 客观评价煤烟和机动车污染并存的复合大气污染对居民健康的影响,为北京市治理和防治大气污染措施的制定和效果评价提供依据。方法 运用时间序列的泊松回归分析研究1998年1月1日至2000年6月31日期间北京市城区和近郊区(也称城八区)大气污染与居民每日死亡的关系。结果 在控制了气温、气湿和气压等因素后,泊松回归分析显示:空气质量指数(AQI)在冬、夏两季对居民每日死亡均有显著影响,对慢性阻塞性肺疾患(COPD)影响最大,其次是呼吸系统疾病,再次为心、脑血管疾病,未见对恶性肿瘤有影响;大气污染在冬季(11月至次年3月)对居民每日死亡的影响大于夏季(4～10月)。夏季的平均AQI为77.4,AQI每增加10,COPD和呼吸系统疾病的每日死亡人数分别增加2.23％,和1.78％;冬季的平均AQI为129.6,AQI每增加10,呼吸系统疾病每日死亡人数增加3.52％,,其中COPD增加3.68％、;心、脑血管疾病增加2.01％和1.74％,总死亡增加1.69％,其中因病死亡增加1.73％。对不同年龄组居民每日死亡影响的分析也发现空气污染在冬季对居民死亡的影响大于夏季,而且对55岁及以上人群影响显著。结论 北京市大气污染对居民的每日死亡影响显著,冬季的影响大于夏季,大气污染对COPD等呼吸系统疾病影响较大,对55岁以上人群影响显著。
Objectives To objectively evaluate the effects of ambient air pollution caused by coal smoke and automotive exhaust fumes on residential health in Beijing and to supply the bases for formulating control measures and its efficiency assessment. Methods The data of total daily deaths and daily deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease (CVD), the cerebro-vascular disease (CBD) in 8 urban and suburban districts in Beijing during Jan. 1998 to Jun. 2000, along with the daily meteorological factors (temperature, humidity and air pressure) were collected, and the association between daily deaths and the air quality indexes (AQI) of TSP, SO2, NO, and CO were analyzed with time series analysis Poisson regression. Results The results of Poisson regression, after the adjustment for temperature, humidity and air pressure, showed that the daily deaths were significantly associated with the AQI both in summer and winter, especially the deaths due to COPD in first place, the next, including respiratory disease, CVD and CBD, while no significant association was found between AQI and death due to lung cancer and other cancers. The AQI in summer was an average 77.4 and each 10 increase of AQI caused 2.23% and 1.78% increases of daily deaths due to COPD and respiratory disease respectively. In winter (from Jan. to Mar., Nov. and Dec.) the AQI was 129.6 and each 10 increase of AQI caused 3.52%, 3.68%, 2.01%, 1.74%, and 1.69% increases of daily deaths due to respiratory disease, COPD, CVD, CBD and total daily deaths respectively and 1.73% increase of daily death counts was due to all diseases. The results indicated that the effects of air pollution on daily deaths for different age-groups were much more serious during winter than in summer. Only people aged 55 and older were affected more significantly. Conclusion Air pollution in Beijing could have significant effects on daily deaths and more significant effects were noticed in winter than that in summer, especially in the population of 55 and over 55 age-groups with COPD and other respiratory diseases.
出处
《环境与健康杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第2期75-78,共4页
Journal of Environment and Health
