摘要
目的探讨苏州市主要大气污染物对COPD患者死亡的影响。方法制定研究方案,应用时间序列和多元线性回归法进行分析。结果苏州市大气中可吸入颗粒物(PM10)和一氧化碳(CO)月平均浓度与居民COPD死亡之间存在显著相关(P<0.05),其中PM10和CO每升高10μg/m3COPD死亡的相对危险度(RR)增加,分别为1.385(95%CI,1.069～1.702)和1.042(95%CI,1.029～1.056),而二氧化硫(SO2)和二氧化氮(NO2)则呈显著负相关(P=0.00);居民COPD月死亡人数与大气污染物浓度存在线性回归(P<0.05),CO浓度对COPD死亡的影响最大。结论苏州市CO污染可能是居民COPD死亡的主要影响因素。
Objective To investigate the effect of the main atmospheric pollutants on the mortality of chronic obstructive pulmona- ry diseases（COPD） in Suzhou. Methods Time series and multiple linear regression were adopted in this study. Results There was a significant correlation between the COPD mortality and the density of PM10 and CO in Suzhou （ P 〈0. 05 ）. The density increase of PM10 and CO 10 μg/m3 would lead the relative risk of mortality go up （95% CI, 1. 069 - 1. 702） and 1. 042 （95% CI, 1. 029 - 1. 056）. There was a negative correlation between SO2 and NO2 （ P =0. 00）. The multiple linear regression showed the association between the mor- tality and the density of pollutants （ P 〈 0. 05 ）, and the regression equation was ~ = 6. 908 - 373. 097 （ SO2 ] - 330. 072 E NO2 ± 266. 284 E PM10 ] ＋ 29. 142E CO]. Through this equation it showed that the density of CO had the greatest influence to the mortality of COPD patients. Conclusion In Suzhou, the key point about the mortality of COPD may be associated with the pollution level of CO.
出处
《临床肺科杂志》
2012年第12期2136-2138,共3页
Journal of Clinical Pulmonary Medicine
基金
苏州市科学技术局项目(编号:SS0722)
关键词
慢性阻塞性肺病
死亡病例
大气污染物
时间序列分析
mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
atmospheric pollutant
time series analysis
