摘要
面向人口变动的新形势,利用第七次全国人口普查数据,将黑龙江、安徽、广东作为人口收缩型、平衡型和增长型地区的典型省份,分别预测其2026—2050年义务教育阶段学龄人口规模。在此基础上,构建以生师比阈值为核心的义务教育师资配置预警机制,并通过动态调整师资配置标准测算上述省域的师资需求。结果表明,三省学龄人口变动趋势显著不同,其师资需求变化亦各不相同:黑龙江省短期内的师资增量需求基本为零,进入“十七五”时期后需小幅补充;安徽省城镇地区持续存在师资增量需求,乡村地区自“十七五”时期起需适度增补;广东省当前面临小幅师资增量需求,“十七五”时期后城镇地区增量需求明显提高。进一步分析表明,三省不同程度地存在研究生学历教师短缺和学科教师结构性错配问题,提高教师学历层次和优化学科教师配置已成为各地面临的共同挑战,也是教育强国建设中亟待解决的关键课题。
This study,based on the new context of demographic changes and data from the seventh national population census,selects Heilongjiang,Anhui,and Guangdong as representative provinces of population-shrinking,populationbalancing,and population-growing regions,respectively,to forecast the sizes of their school-age population in compulsory education between 2026 and 2050.Based on this,it establishes an early-warning mechanism(focusing on teacher-student ratio thresholds)for teacher allocation in compulsory education,and estimates the demands for teachers in these provinces based on dynamically adjusted teacher allocation standards.The findings indicate that the three provinces exhibit significantly different trends in school-age population changes,leading to varied demands for teachers:In Heilongjiang,there is a minimal short-term demand for additional teachers,with a slight increase to be required after the"17th Five-Year Plan"period;in Anhui,urban areas consistently require additional teachers,while rural areas need moderately supplemented teachers since the"17th Five-Year Plan"period;and in Guangdong,there is currently a modest demand for additional teachers,with urban areas showing a prominent incremental demand after the"17th Five-Year Plan"period.Further analysis reveals that the three provinces face varying degrees of shortages in teachers with postgraduate degrees and structural mismatches in subject-specific teacher allocation.Therefore,enhancing teachers'academic degrees and optimizing the allocation of subject-specific teachers have become common challenges across regions,and critical issues to be addressed in building a leading country in education.
作者
梁文艳
孙雨婷
杜育红
Liang Wenyan;Sun Yuting;Du Yuhong(Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)
出处
《教育研究》
北大核心
2026年第2期40-53,共14页
Educational Research
基金
国家社会科学基金2024年度教育学重大项目“支撑教育强国建设的战略性投入的机制研究”(编号:VKA240011)的研究成果。
关键词
教育强国
人口增减分化
义务教育
师资配置
预警机制
a leading country in education
differentiated population growth and decline
compulsory education
teacher allocation
early-warning mechanism
