摘要
当前我国人口发展呈现少子化、老龄化、区域人口增减分化的趋势性特征,对托幼服务结构转型和资源配置提出了新要求。为考察人口变动新形势对托幼一体化资源需求的影响,运用PADIS-INT人口预测软件,以2020年第七次全国人口普查数据为基准,系统预测2025-2050年我国0-6岁人口规模、入学儿童人数以及托幼一体化资源需求规模。结果显示:2025-2050年,我国0-6岁人口整体呈波动下降趋势,将从2025年的8316万人下降至2050年的6463万人;0-6岁儿童入学需求呈现幼儿园降、托育机构升的分化特征,幼儿园需求数量将从2025年的251952所降至2050年的208744所,而托育机构需求数量将从2025年的20630所增至2050年的70500所;幼儿园专任教师和保育员将长期过剩,而托育教师持续短缺,托幼资源需求结构矛盾显著。基于此,建议存量盘活与增量调控协同,构建动态适配的托幼空间布局体系;供需匹配与能力升级联动,打造专业化托幼人才队伍;政策协同与监管强化统筹,构建托幼一体化保障体系。
Current demographic developments in China are characterized by declining fertility,population ag-ing,and divergent regional population growth patterns,posing new challenges to the structural transformation and resource allocation of early childhood care and education services.Using the PADIS-INT population projection soft-ware and based on data from the 2020 Seventh National Population Census,this study sets parameters such as total fertility rate,life expectancy,and sex ratio at birth to systematically forecast the population size of children aged 0-6,the number of school entrants,and the demand for integrated early childhood care and education resources in China from 2025 to 2050.The results indicate that the population of children aged 0-6 will generally exhibit a fluc-tuating downward trend,decreasing from 83.16 million in 2025 to 64.63 million in 2050.Correspondingly,the en-rollment demand for children aged 0-6 shows a divergent pattern:the demand for kindergartens will decline,while the demand for nurseries will rise.The number of kindergartens needed is projected to decrease from 251,952 in 2025 to 208,744 in 2050,whereas the number of nurseries required will increase from 20630 in 2025 to 70,500 in 2050.Additionally,there will be a long-term surplus of kindergarten teachers and childcare workers,while a per-sistent shortage of nursery teachers is expected,highlighting significant structural imbalances in the demand for ear-ly childhood care and education resources.Based on these findings,it is recommended to simultaneously revitalize existing resources and regulate new investments to optimize the spatial distribution of early childhood care and edu-cation institutions.Efforts should also be made to align supply and demand while enhancing capabilities to rebuild the professional workforce in this sector.Furthermore,policy coordination and strengthened oversight are essential to improve the support system for integrated early childhood care and education.
作者
王艺芳
底会娟
Wang Yifang;Di Huijuan
出处
《教育学术月刊》
北大核心
2026年第1期102-111,共10页
Education Research Monthly
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“适应人口变动的区域托幼一体化实践模式与政策优化研究”(编号:24YJC880139)
河北省教育科学“十四五”规划重大招标项目“河北省幼儿园托幼一体化研究”(编号:2201053)
安徽省社会哲学科学项目青年项目“安徽省普惠性托育服务供给体系建设研究”(编号:AHSKYQ2024D024)。
关键词
人口变动
托幼一体化
资源需求
人口预测
demographic changes
integrated early childhood care and education
resource demand
population forecasting
