摘要
在印美关税分歧持续加剧与全球产业链重组的背景下,印度在对外经贸关系中的平衡压力显著增加,其对华经济政策原有的矛盾被进一步放大。自2014年以来,莫迪政府的对华经济政策经历了三个阶段:第一任期强调引入中国资本与技术以助推发展;第二任期在边境冲突和民族主义影响下转向强硬,主动推动脱钩与产业替代;第三任期则在现实约束下试图在“经济自主”与“发展需求”之间寻找新的平衡,对华突出管控式竞争的策略。这种阶段性政策调整的背后,是政策内在矛盾的集中体现。印度在目标上陷入寻求供应链战略替代与对华中间品深度依赖并存的悖论;手段上表现为吸引中国资本技术的选择性合作与防范中国影响力的制度性排斥并行;在方向上对华“防范管控”与对美欧“开放融合”构成双重标准。究其根源,以上矛盾表征均可追溯至印度决策精英层对中国经济影响的深层“认知撕裂”,首先,印度在工业化路径上徘徊于“嵌入式发展”与“自主性替代”两种相互牵制的国家愿景;其次,决策过程受国内官僚及利益集团“开放与保护”的博弈;最后,政治层面深受印度教民族主义意识形态驱动的“经济安全化”叙事影响。正是这种深层的认知冲突,使得印度的对华经济政策始终在对抗与合作间反复摇摆,其矛盾特征将长期存在。
In the context of escalating U.S.-India tariff disputes and the restructuring of global supply chains,India faces mounting pressure to balance its external economic relations,which has further magnified the inherent contradictions in its economic policy toward China.Since 2014,the Modi government’s China policy has undergone three phases:In his first term,Modi promoted China-India cooperation,leveraging Chinese capital and technology to support development.The second term,influenced by border frictions and nationalism,marked a sharp turn toward economic disengagement and accelerated industrial substitution.In the third term,constrained by reality,India has sought a new balance between“economic self-reliance”and“development needs,”adopting a strategy of managed competition toward China.Behind these phased policy adjustments lie concentrated manifestations of inherent policy contradictions.India is caught in a paradox:India pursues strategic supply-chain substitution while remaining highly dependent on Chinese intermediate inputs;in terms of policy instruments,it combines selective cooperation to attract Chinese capital and technology with institutionalized restrictions,alongside institutional exclusion to guard against China’s influence;in terms of orientation,it applies a double standard by tightening“risk-management”toward China while promoting“openness and integration”with the United States and Europe.At root lies an elite-level cognitive split over China’s economic impact.First,India hesitates between two competing national visions on its industrialization path:“embedded development”and“autonomous substitution.”Second,the decision-making process is shaped by the domestic bureaucratic and interest-group struggle between“openness”and“protectionism.”Third,at the political level,it is strongly influenced by the“securitization of the economy”narrative driven by Hindu nationalist ideology.It is this deep-seated cognitive conflict that leaves India’s economic policy toward China constantly swinging between confrontation and cooperation,with its contradictory nature set to persist over the long term.
作者
吴俊
叶海林
WU Jun;YE Hailin(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)
出处
《太平洋学报》
北大核心
2026年第1期59-73,共15页
Pacific Journal
关键词
中印经济关系
莫迪政府
“印度制造”
印度产业政策
印美关税分歧
China-India economic relations
Modi administration
made in India
industrial policy
U.S.-India tariff disputes
