摘要
为了给黄河流域绿色低碳发展、落实“双碳”行动提供决策依据和参考,采用超效率SBM模型测算2013—2021年黄河流域50个城市的碳排放效率,利用Malmquist指数模型对碳排放效率进行静态与动态综合评价,通过计算莫兰指数并点绘莫兰散点图分析城市碳排放效率空间自相关性,构建空间杜宾模型探讨了城市碳排放效率的影响因素。结果表明:1)黄河流域城市碳排放效率普遍较低,虽然在研究期整体呈上升态势,但是长期形成的依赖高碳能源的发展模式在短期内难以彻底改变,制约了碳排放效率的大幅度提升;2)黄河流域城市之间碳排放效率差异较大,约四分之一的城市处于碳排放有效状态,大部分城市处于碳排放无效状态,在空间上呈高-高集聚和低-低集聚特征;3)经济发展、科技创新对黄河流域城市碳排放效率提升具有显著促进和驱动作用,对外贸易、政府干预对提升城市碳排放效率有一定促进作用,城镇化、产业结构对城市碳排放效率提升有一定负面影响。建议:开发利用新能源、优化产业结构,加强科技创新及其成果转化应用,因地制宜、精准施策,建设绿色低碳新型城市。
To provide a decision⁃making basis and reference for the green and low⁃carbon development of the Yellow River Basin and the implementation of the“dual carbon”strategy,this study adopted the super⁃efficiency SBM model to measure the carbon emission efficiency of 50 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2013 to 2021.The Malmquist index model was used to conduct a static and dynamic comprehensive evaluation of carbon emission efficiency.The spatial autocorrelation of urban carbon emission efficiency was analyzed by calculating the Moran’s I and plotting the Moran scatter plot,and a spatial Durbin model was constructed to explore the influencing factors of urban carbon emission efficiency.The results show that:a)The urban carbon emission efficiency in the Yellow River Basin is generally low.Although it showed an overall upward trend during the study period,the long⁃formed development model relying on high⁃carbon energy is difficult to change completely in the short term,which restricts the substantial improvement of carbon emission efficiency.b)There are significant differences in carbon emission efficiency among cities in the Yellow River Basin.Approximately a quarter of the cities are in an effective state of carbon emission,while most cities are in an ineffective state,showing spatial characteristics of high⁃high agglomeration and low⁃low agglomeration.c)Economic development and technological innovation have a significant role in promoting and driving the improvement of urban carbon emission efficiency in the Yellow River Basin,foreign trade and government intervention have a certain promoting effect,urbanization and industrial structure have a certain negative impact on the improvement of urban carbon emission efficiency.Suggestions:Develop and utilize new energy sources,optimize the industrial structure,strengthen scientific and technological innovation and the transformation and application of its achievements,implement targeted policies in light of local conditions,and build new green and low⁃carbon cities.
作者
边靓
周浩
BIAN Jing;ZHOU Hao(School of Management,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China;Research Center of Green Development and Mechanism Innovation of Real Estate Industry in Shaanxi Province,Xi’an 710055,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
北大核心
2026年第3期24-29,共6页
Yellow River
基金
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2023M732749)
陕西省社会科学基金资助项目(2023R011,2023SJ09)
教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(24YJC630003)
西安建筑科技大学新型城镇化专项(2023SCZH10)
陕西高校青年创新团队项目(2023-2026)。
