摘要
以大连市国际物流需求为研究对象,基于关联分析法构建了大连市国际物流需求预测影响体系;在此基础上,构建灰色预测模型,对大连市国际物流需求进行了预测。文中通过关联分析法分析出大连市2014-2023年国际物流需求相关的7个指标数据的关联度,确定进出口总额指标为大连国际物流需求的核心指标,并建立了适用于大连市国际物流需求预测的灰色GM(1,1)模型。研究结果表明,GM(1,1)模型能够有效预测出大连市国际物流需求变化,并且具有较高的精度和可靠性。研究所得预测结果将为大连国际物流发展提供有效参考。
Taking the international logistics demand of Dalian City as the research object,based on the correlation analysis method,a prediction influence system of Dalian’s logistics demand is constructed.On this basis,a grey prediction model is established to predict the international logistics demand of Dalian City.Through the correlation analysis method,this study analyzes the correlation degree of seven indicator data related to the international logistics demand of Dalian from 2014 to 2023,then determines that the total import and export volume is the core indicator of Dalian’s international logistics demand,and combines the grey GM(1,1)model to establish an international logistics demand prediction model suitable for the Dalian area.The research results show that the GM(1,1)model can effectively predict the international logistics demand of Dalian City,which has high accuracy and reliability.The prediction results of this study will provide an effective reference for the development of Dalian’s international logistics.
作者
赵娅彤
ZHAO Yatong(Liaoning University of International Business and Economics,Dalian 116052,China)
出处
《物流工程与管理》
2025年第11期28-30,47,共4页
Logistics Engineering and Management
基金
大连市社科联项目(2025dlskzd190)。
