摘要
随着云南省综合交通运输体系建设的不断推进,交通运输业碳排放不断增长。通过对云南省交通运输业2008—2022年的碳排放量进行核算,基于塔皮奥(Tapio)脱钩模型分析碳排放脱钩状态,并利用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对2023—2030年碳排放量进行预测。结果表明:云南省交通运输业碳排放量呈逐年上升趋势,由2008年的1 433.78万t上升至2022年的2 734.99万t,碳排放的主要来源是能源消耗,其中柴油、汽油2种能源消耗量占比较大,增速也较快;2008—2022年,云南省交通运输业碳排放脱钩状态呈现“强负脱钩-弱脱钩-强脱钩”的周期性交替变化,碳排放尚未达到稳定的脱钩状态,距离实现绝对脱钩还存在一定距离;根据碳排放预测结果,2030年云南省交通运输业碳排放量为3 933.492万t,并且仍存在上升趋势。因此,要确保云南省交通运输业如期实现碳达峰目标,须进一步采取强有力的节能降碳措施。
With the continuous advancement of the construction of the comprehensive transportation system in Yunnan Province,carbon emissions in the transportation industry are steadily growing.This study calculates the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in Yunnan Province from 2008 to 2022.Based on these calculations,the Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling status of carbon emissions,and the GM(1,1)grey prediction model is applied to forecast the carbon emissions of Yunnan s transportation industry from 2023 to 2030.The results indicate that:(1)The carbon emissions of Yunnan s transportation industry have shown a continuous upward trend,rising from 14.34 million tons in 2008 to 27.35 million tons in 2022.The main source of carbon emissions is energy consumption,with diesel and gasoline accounting for a significant proportion and showing rapid growth.(2)Between 2008 and 2022,the decoupling status of carbon emissions in Yunnan s transportation industry alternated cyclically between“Strong negative decoupling-Weak decoupling-Strong decoupling,”indicating that a stable decoupling state has not yet been achieved,and there is still a considerable gap to realizing absolute decoupling.(3)According to the carbon emission prediction results,the carbon emissions of Yunnan s transportation industry will reach 39.33 million tons in 2030,with a sustained upward trend.Therefore,to ensure the timely achievement of the carbon peak target in Yunnan s transportation industry,it is imperative to further implement robust energy-saving and carbon reduction measures.
作者
吴昊
马力
应元波
胡圆
方留杨
WU Hao;MA Li;YING Yuanbo;HU Yuan;FANG Liuyang(Broadvision Engineering Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Kunming,Yunnan 650200,China;Yunnan Key Laboratory of Digital Communications,Kunming,Yunnan 650000,China;Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming,Yunnan 650093,China)
出处
《环境监控与预警》
2026年第1期15-23,共9页
Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning
基金
云南省交通运输厅科技创新示范项目[2023-91(一)]
云南省数字交通重点实验室项目(202205AG070008)
云南省人才项目“高层次人才培养支持计划”(YNWR-QNBJ-2020-031)。
关键词
交通运输业
碳排放
塔皮奥脱钩模型
灰色预测模型
Transportation industry
Carbon emissions
Tapio decoupling model
Grey prediction model
