摘要
目的基于全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库2021数据,分析1990—2021年中国及不同社会人口指数(SDI)地区白内障疾病负担变化趋势及导致白内障产生的潜在风险因素,并预测2022—2050年中国白内障患者的患病率和伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)率。方法从GBD 2021数据库获取中国和5个SDI地区1990—2021年白内障的患病率、患病人数、DALYs以及风险因素等数据,年龄-时期-队列模型分析白内障患者年龄-疾病的标准化患病率和DALYs的变化趋势,使用自回归积分滑动平均模型预测2022—2050年中国白内障的患病率和DALYs率。结果1990—2021年,中国白内障年龄标准化患病率的估计年度百分比变化(EAPC)为0.649%(95%CI:0.392%~0.906%),患病率呈上升趋势。中国及多数SDI地区白内障DALYs均呈下降趋势,但高-中SDI地区女性DALYs却呈上升趋势。所有地区女性的白内障疾病负担均显著高于男性,女性患病人数约为男性的1.39倍,女性患者DALYs约为男性的1.43倍。1990—2021年,中国及不同SDI地区白内障风险因素中,家庭固体燃料造成的空气污染占比下降,高空腹血糖、高身体质量指数等与生活习惯相关的因素影响增强。预测结果显示,2022—2050年,中国白内障患病人数总体呈现较平稳变化趋势;中国白内障DALYs率以及患病率中,女性DALYs率整体呈上升趋势,男性DALYs率整体呈下降趋势,两性患病率变化趋势较为一致且平稳。结论1990—2021年,中国和不同SDI地区白内障的疾病负担均增加,且女性多于男性。预计2022—2050年中国白内障的患病人数总体呈现较平稳变化趋势,女性DALYs率上升,未来疾病负担仍较高。
Objective To analyze the variation trends in cataract disease burden and the possible risk factors of cataract in China and across regions with different socio-demographic indexes(SDI)from 1990 to 2021,and to project the prevalence rate and the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rate for cataract patients in China from 2022 to 2050,based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021).Methods The prevalence rates,numbers of patients,DALYs,and risk factors related to cataract in China and 5 SDI regions from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021.An age-period-cohort model was employed to analyze the variation trends in age-standardized prevalence rates and DALYs among cataract patients.The autoregressive integrated moving average model was subsequently applied to project the standardized prevalence and DALY rates for cataract patients in China from 2022 to 2050.Results From 1990 to 2021,the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)of the age-standardized prevalence of cataract in China was 0.649%(95%CI:0.392%-0.906%),indicating an increasing prevalence rate.While the DALYs for cataract showed a decreasing trend in China and most SDI regions,female DALYs in high-middle SDI regions demonstrated an upward trend.The cataract disease burden among females was significantly higher than that among males across all regions.The number of female patients was 1.39 times that of male patients,and the DALYs for females were approximately 1.43 times those for males.From 1990 to 2021,among risk factors of cataract in China and different SDI regions,the proportion attributable to air pollution from household solid fuels decreased,whereas factors related to lifestyle,such as high fasting blood glucose and elevated body mass index,became increasingly influential.It was predicted that from 2022 to 2050,the number of cataract patients in China would generally show a relatively stable trend.Regarding the DALY rate and the prevalence of cataract in China,the female DALY rate was projected to increase overall,the male DALY rate was expected to decrease overall,and the prevalence for both genders was estimated to maintain relatively consistent and stable.Conclusion Between 1990 and 2021,the burden of cataract increased in China and across different SDI regions,with females bearing a higher burden than males.It is projected that from 2022 to 2050,the number of cataract patients in China may maintain stable overall,with an increasing female DALY rate,and the disease burden is expected to remain high in the future.
作者
彭龄忆
姜旭
魏金枫
夏佳琪
PENG Lingyi;JIANG Xu;WEI Jinfeng;XIA Jiaqi(Clinical Medical College of Jiamusi University,Jiamusi 154007,Heilongjiang Province,China;School of Public Health of Jiamusi University,Jiamusi 154007,Heilongjiang Province,China;School of Basic Medicine of Jiamusi University,Jiamusi 154007,Heilongjiang Province,China)
出处
《眼科新进展》
北大核心
2026年第2期134-139,共6页
Recent Advances in Ophthalmology
基金
黑龙江省自然科学基金优秀青年项目(编号:YQ2024H001)
佳木斯大学国家基金培育项目(编号:JMSUGPZR2022-013)
黑龙江省大学生创新训练计划项目(编号:S202510222120)。
关键词
白内障
疾病负担
社会人口指数
伤残调整寿命年
患病率
风险因素
cataract
disease burden
socio-demographic index
disability-adjusted life years
prevalence
risk factors
