摘要
目的观察自回归积分滑动平均(ARIMA)模型和Prophet模型对河南省流行性感冒的预测效果,为河南省流行性感冒的防控提供参考依据。方法选取河南省卫生健康委员会官网公布的2016年1月至2024年5月河南省流行性感冒月报告数,采用Excel 2021软件建立数据库,分析河南省流行性感冒的发病趋势和季节特征;使用R软件构建ARIMA模型和Prophet模型,采用均方根误差(RMSE)平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)评估模型拟合和预测效果。结果河南省流行性感冒高发期集中于冬春季。模型拟合结果显示,ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,0,2)_(12)模型拟合的评估指标RMSE=0.31,MAE=0.21,MAPE=0.05;Prophet模型拟合的评估指标RMSE=0.43,MAE=0.32,MAPE=0.09。模型预测结果显示,ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,0,2)_(12)模型预测的评估指标RMSE=0.32,MAE=0.26,MAPE=0.06;Prophet模型预测的评估指标RMSE=0.68,MAE=0.57,MAPE=0.12。结论ARIMA模型和Prophet模型在拟合性能上表现相近;在预测方面,ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,0,2)_(12)模型表现更优,能较好预测河南省流行性感冒的发病趋势,可为河南省流行性感冒的科学防控提供理论依据。
Objective To evaluate the predictive performance of the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model and the Prophet model for influenza in Henan Province.and to provide evidence for influenza prevention and control in Henan Province.Methods Monthly reported cases in Henan Province from January 2016 to May 2024.published on the official website of the Henan Provincial Health Commission.were collected.A database was established using Excel 2021 to analyze temporal trends and seasonal characteristics of influenza in Henan Province.ARIMA and Prophet models were constructed using R software.Model fitting and forecasting performance were evaluated using the root mean square error(RMSE).mean absolute error(MAE).and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).Results The peak influenza season in Henan Province was concentrated in winter and spring.Model fitting showed that the ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,0,2)_(12)model achieved RMSE=0.31.MAE=0.21.and MAPE=0.05.whereas the Prophet model achieved RMSE=0.43.MAE=0.32.and MAPE=0.09.For forecasting.the ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,0,2)_(12)model achieved RMSE=0.32.MAE=0.26.and MAPE=0.06.while the Prophet model achieved RMSE=0.68.MAE=0.57.and MAPE=0.12.Conclusion The ARIMA and Prophet models showed comparable fitting performance;however.for forecasting.the ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,0,2)_(12)model performed better and could more accurately predict influenza trends in Henan Province.providing a theoretical basis for scientific influenza prevention and control in Henan Province.
作者
宋会群
宋沛沛
陈述
SONG Huiqun;SONG Peipei;CHEN Shu(Department of Pediatrics,Kaifeng City Xiangfu District Second People’s Hospital,Kaifeng Henan 475100,China;Department of Emergency,Kaifeng People’s Hospital,Kaifeng Henan 475100,China;Department of Public Health,Chenliu Town Health Center,Kaifeng Henan 475100,China)
出处
《临床研究》
2026年第2期13-16,共4页
Clinical Research
