摘要
目的分析2015—2024年重庆市永川区手足口病流行特征,建立季节性差分自回归移动平均模型,预测2025年手足口病发病趋势,为疾病防控提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统整理2015—2024年重庆市永川区手足口病病例信息,利用SPSS 26.0、Joinpoint 5.2.0软件和季节指数,分析2015—2024年重庆市永川区手足口病分布特征,并预测2025年发病趋势,检验水准α=0.05。结果2015—2024年重庆市永川区累计报告手足口病病例6318例,年均报告发病率为51.28/10万。除2020年外,发病率呈隔年高发趋势。手足口病发病呈现季节性和双峰分布,高峰分别为5至7月和9至11月。男性发病率(64.71/10万)高于女性(47.29/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=151.68,P<0.001)。人群以5岁及以下儿童和散居儿童为主,分别占94.84%和66.02%。Jionpoint回归分析显示,随着年龄增长手足口病发病率呈下降趋势,APC=AAPC=-27.88%(95%CI:-41.61%~-23.80%,P<0.001)。城镇手足口病发病率(94.28/10万)高于农村(22.46/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=2623.38,P<0.001)。病原学检测结果显示,优势病原体以其他肠道病毒为主,阳性检出率为30.22%。0~5岁儿童EV 71疫苗总体接种率为6.57%,各年疫苗接种率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=13941.56,P<0.001)。SARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12为最优模型,预测性能较好(正态化BIC=7.595,平稳R2=0.611);预测2025年发病数增加,出现夏、秋季2个高峰。结论重庆市永川区手足口病疫情具有明显的季节性,建议将疱疹性咽峡炎纳入监测,在流行期前加强健康教育、EV 71疫苗接种等,精准开展防控。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and establish an seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict the incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in Yongchuan District of Chongqing,aiming to provide a basis for disease prevention and control.Methods The case information of HFMD in Yongchuan District of Chongqing City from 2015 to 2024 was collated through the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Using SPSS 26.0,Joinpoint 5.2.0 software,the distribution characteristics of HFMD in Yongchuan District of Chongqing City from 2015 to 2024 were analyzed,and the incidence trend in 2025 was predicted,with the significance level atα=0.05.Results From 2015 to 2024,6318 cases of HFMD were reported in Yongchuan District,with an average annual incidence rate of 51.28/10^(5).Except for the 2020 year,the incidence rate of HFMD showed a trend of high incidence in every other year.The incidence of HFMD showed a seasonal and bimodal distribution.The peak time of the HFMD was from May to July and from September to November.The incidence rate in males(64.71/10^(5))was higher than that in females(47.29/10^(5))(χ^(2)=151.68,P<0.001).The HFMD cases were dominated by children under 5 years(94.84%)and children living in scattered areas(66.02%).The Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a declining trend in the incidence rate reported in age,with the APC=AAPC=-27.88%(95%CI:-41.61%~-23.80%,P<0.001).The incidence rate was higher in urban(94.28/10^(5))than that in rural areas(22.46/10^(5)),and the difference was statistically significant(χ^(2)=2623.38,P<0001).The dominant pathogens were mainly other enteroviruses,with a positive detection rate of 30.22%.The overall vaccination rate of EV 71 vaccine in children aged 0 to 5 years was 6.57%,and there was a statistically significant difference of the vaccination rate in the different years(χ^(2)=13941.56,P<0.001).The ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12 model was selected as the optimal model(normalized BIC=7.595,R2=0.611).The model predicted that the number of cases would increase in 2025,with two incidence peaks in summer and autumn.Conclusions The epidemic of HFMD was obvious seasonality in Yongchuan District of Chongqing City.It is suggested that herpangina should be included in the monitoring system.Health education and EV 71 vaccination should be strengthened before the epidemic period,and precise prevention and control measures should be taken.
作者
罗月
吴娟
杨辉
于水馨
曾凡娜
谢明琴
LUO Yue;WU Juan;Yang Hui;Yu Shuixin;ZENG Fanna;XIE Mingqin(Yongchuan Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Chongqing 402160,China)
出处
《寄生虫病与感染性疾病》
2025年第4期189-195,共7页
Parasitoses and Infectious Diseases
关键词
手足口病
流行特征
模型预测
EV
71疫苗
hand,foot,and mouth disease
epidemiological characteristics
model prediction
EV 71 vaccine
