摘要
目的分析重庆市渝北区2014—2023年水痘流行特征并对未来趋势进行预测,为科学防控水痘提供决策依据。方法运用描述性分析方法对渝北区2014—2023年水痘流行特征进行分析,采用空间自相关分析探索发病的时空聚集性,运用自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)对渝北区2024年11月—2025年10月水痘的发病趋势进行预测分析。结果2014—2023年渝北区累计报告水痘病例23237例,年均报告发病率为149.65/10万,2014—2018年水痘发病呈上升趋势(χ_(趋势)^(2)=46404.000,P<0.001),2019—2022年呈下降趋势(χ_(趋势)^(2)=29760.000,P<0.001),2023年有所反弹;全年各月均有水痘病例报告,发病高峰主要集中在4—6月和10—12月;报告病例的中位年龄为9岁,2014—2023年发病中位年龄呈上升趋势;男性发病率高于女性(χ^(2)=13.383,P<0.001);报告发病率最高的年龄组为5~<10岁(6940.81/10万);ARIMA(1,0,1)×(1,1,0)12模型预测渝北区2024年11月—2025年10月水痘发病趋势较2023—2024年同期(1906例)下降18.31%,集中在4—6月和10—12月。结论渝北区水痘发病呈季节性波动,5~<10岁儿童为高发人群,发病中位年龄呈上升趋势。需针对重点人群(15岁以下儿童)加强监测,严格落实学校及托幼机构等重点场所的晨午检制度,及时发现可疑病例并及时隔离,阻断水痘的传播。同时针对高发地区,有针对性地开展健康教育、水痘疫苗接种率监测与补种工作,提高人群免疫水平。
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of varicella in Yubei district,Chongqing from 2014 to 2023 and predict its future trends,providing decision-making basis for the scientific prevention and control of varicella.Methods Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the epidemic characteristics of varicella in Yubei district from 2014 to 2023;spatial autocorrelation analysis was adopted to explore the spatiotemporal aggregation of the incidence;the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA)was applied to predict and analyze the incidence trend of varicella in Yubei district from November 2024 to October 2025.Results A total of 23237 varicella cases were reported in Yubei district from 2014 to 2023,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 149.65 per 100000 population.From 2014 to 2018,the incidence of varicella showed an upward trend(χ_(trend)^(2)=46404.000,P<0.001);from 2019 to 2022(χ_(trend)^(2)=29760.000,P<0.001);and there was a rebound in 2023.Varicella cases were reported every month throughout the year,with the peak incidence mainly concentrated in April-June and October-December.The median age of the reported cases was 9 years old,and the median age of onset showed an increasing trend from 2014 to 2023.The incidence rate in males was higher than that in females(χ^(2)=13.383,P<0.001).The age group with the highest reported incidence rate was 5-<10 years old(6940.81 per 100000 population).The ARIMA(1,0,1)×(1,1,0)12 model predicted that the incidence trend of varicella in Yubei district from November 2024 to October 2025 would decrease by 1.21%compared with the same period of 2023-2024(1906 cases),with the cases concentrated in April-June and October-December.Conclusions The incidence of varicella in Yubei district fluctuates seasonally.Children aged 5-<10 years are the high-incidence population,and the median age of onset is on the rise.It is necessary to strengthen surveillance for key populations(children under 15 years old),strictly implement the morning and afternoon inspection system in key places such as schools and kindergartens,promptly detect suspicious cases and isolate them in a timely manner to block the transmission of varicella.Meanwhile,targeted health education,as well as monitoring and supplementary vaccination of varicella vaccination rates,should be carried out in high-incidence areas to improve the population's immune level.
作者
彭李
杨森评
苏小元
杨晓春
袁春节
PENG Li;YANG Senping;SU Xiaoyuan;YANG Xiaochun;YUAN Chunjie(Yubei District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 401120,China)
出处
《首都公共卫生》
2025年第6期348-352,共5页
Capital Journal of Public Health
关键词
水痘
流行特征
空间自相关
ARIMA
预测
Chickenpox
Epidemiological characteristics
Spatial autocorrelation
ARIMA
Forecasting
