摘要
基于城市群交通系统的复杂性与动态性特征,综合考察交通供需与人口、经济和环境等要素的耦合关系,旨在揭示城市群交通供需失衡的内在机制,为系统优化提供理论支撑。研究采用系统动力学方法,首先,系统解析交通供需的关键影响因素;其次,在界定研究主体模块的基础上,明确系统边界,绘制因果关系图并深入剖析系统反馈机制;最后,构建城市群交通供需非均衡的系统动力学模型,建立相应的精确分析方程。以京津冀城市群为实证案例,基于Vensim平台对2024—2032年交通供需关系进行动态仿真,结果表明,在自然发展情景下,该区域交通系统非均衡度呈持续恶化趋势,2032年非均衡度将降至0.48。进一步通过政策情景模拟发现,实施人口规模调控(减少20%)和交通基础设施投资扩张(增加20%)两类干预策略后,非均衡度分别提升至0.59和0.55,较基准情景改善幅度达22.92%和14.58%。本研究不仅揭示了城市群交通供需失衡的内在机制,还为政策制定提供了量化决策依据。
Based on the complexity and dynamic characteristics of the traffic system in urban ag⁃glomerations,the coupling relationship between transportation supply and demand as well as popula⁃tion,economy,environment and other factors are comprehensively examined,which aims to reveal the internal mechanism of the imbalance between transportation supply and demand in urban agglomerations and provides theoretical support for system optimization.The system dynamics method was used in the study.Firstly,the key influencing factors of transportation supply and demand were systematically ana⁃lyzed.Secondly,the research subject module was defined,on the basis of which,the system boundary was clarified,the causality diagram was drawn and the system feedback mechanism was deeply analyzed.Finally,the system dynamics model of unbalanced transportation supply and demand in urban agglomera⁃tion was constructed,and the corresponding accurate analysis equation was established.Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as an empirical case,the relationships between transportation supply and demand from 2024 to 2032 were simulated using the Vensim platform.The results show that under the natural development scenario,the imbalance degree of transportation system in this area will continue to de⁃teriorate,and it will drop to 0.48 by 2032.Through further policy scenario simulation,it is found that by implementing the two intervention strategies of population size regulation(reduction of 20%)and transpor⁃tation infrastructure investment expansion(increase of 20%),the imbalance degree is increased to 0.59 and 0.55 respectively,which is 22.92%and 14.58%higher than the benchmark scenario.The study not only reveals the internal mechanism of the imbalance between transportation supply and demand in urban agglomerations,but also provides a quantitative decision-making basis for policy formulation.
作者
高东梅
刘佳
郑山江
李成兵
GAO Dongmei;LIU Jia;ZHENG Shanjiang;LI Chengbing(Institute of Transportation,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot 010070,China;Inner Mongolia Transportation Design and Research Institute Company,Hohhot 010010,China)
出处
《内蒙古大学学报(自然科学版)》
2025年第6期669-680,共12页
Journal of Inner Mongolia University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(62063023)
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2023MS05036)
内蒙古自治区高等学校青年科技英才支持计划项目(NJYT22099)。
关键词
城市群交通
供需非均衡
交通供需
系统动力学
urban agglomeration traffic
unbalanced supply and demand
transportation supply and demand
system dynamics
