摘要
从复杂性视域出发,探讨国家安全风险监测预警体系在数字化转型过程中的逻辑脉络。随着数字技术的持续迭代与升级,国家安全风险预警体系正经历着由计算化、网络化向智能化方向的深刻转型。本研究系统性分析数字化转型在增强国家安全风险预警能力优化决策支持机制、加强网络安全防护与数据保护力度,以及提升应急响应效率等方面所发挥的积极作用,指出了转型过程中存在的数据安全与隐私保护、技术发展与治理不同步、体系碎片化等挑战。尤其是以生成式人工智能为核心的数字孪生预警体系,是未来提升国家安全风险预警体系复杂适应性的核心路径。
From the perspective of complexity theory,this paper discusses the logical trajectory of the digital transformation of national security risk monitoring and early warning systems.With the continuous iteration and upgrading of digital technologies,these systems are undergoing a profound transformation from computational and network-based models toward intelligentized frameworks.This paper systematically analyzes the positive roles that digital transformation plays in enhancing national security risk early warning capabilities,optimizing decision support mechanisms,strengthening cybersecurity and data protection,and improving emergency response efficiency.It identifies key challenges in the transformation process,such as data security and privacy protection,the mismatch between technological development and governance capacity,and fragmentation of system structures.Particularly,the emergence of digital twin early warning systems powered by generative artificial intelligence is identified as a core pathway for enhancing the complex adaptive capacity of national security risk early warning systems in the future.
作者
赵吉
张文斌
ZHAO Ji;ZHANG Wenbin
出处
《上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第10期49-63,共15页
Journal of Shanghai Jiao tong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“超大城市治理的理论逻辑与数字化转型路径研究”(22&ZD171)
上海市2025年度高水平机构建设运行计划“软科学研究”项目“人工智能驱动上海社会治安智能化转型的路径研究”(25692110900)。
关键词
国家安全治理
数字化转型
风险预警
复杂适应系统理论
人工智能
national security governance
digital transformation
risk early warning
complex adaptive system theory
artificial intelligence
