摘要
目的分析2012―2021年中国艾滋病(acquired immune deficiency syndrome,AIDS)时空分布规律及聚集区域,为防控提供依据。方法从公共卫生科学数据中心、《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》、国家统计局等获取2012―2021年中国艾滋病发病数据和人口学资料。采用描述性分析、空间自相关分析、时空扫描法和标准差椭圆(standard deviation ellipse,SDE)法分别研究疾病流行趋势、空间和时空特征、发病区域特征等。结果2012―2019年中国AIDS发病率呈上升趋势[年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)为7.62%,95%CI:6.52%~9.92%,P<0.001],2019―2021年出现下降(APC=-7.64%,95%CI:-14.12%~-0.74%,P=0.030)。全局自相关分析中莫兰指数(Moran′s I)从2012年的0.240增至2021年的0.414,存在空间正自相关性且不断增强。局部自相关分析中,贵州省、云南省和广西壮族自治区一直是“高-高”聚集模式,内蒙古自治区、辽宁省则是“低-低”聚集模式,河南省和四川省等地区随着时间变化而改变。热点分析表明贵州省等地形成热点集群,同时呈现扩散趋势。时空扫描揭示了云南省、贵州省、四川省、重庆市和广西壮族自治区为疫情重点区域,SDE法提示发病重心由四川省和重庆市向东南方向转移。结论研究揭示了中国AIDS疫情特征,防控工作应据此精准配置资源,强化重点区域防控和疫情监测。
Objective The purpose of this study was to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of acquired immune deficiency syndrome(AIDS)incidence and areas of concentration in China from 2012 to 2021,and to provide an evidence for prevention and control.Methods Data on AIDS incidence and demographic information in China from 2012 to 2021 were obtained from the Public Health Science Data Centre,the China Health and Health Statistics Yearbook,and the National Bureau of Statistics.Descriptive analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis,spatiotemporal scan statistics,and standard deviation ellipse(SDE)methods were used to analyze trends in disease prevalence,spatiotemporal characteristics,and characteristics of affected regions,respectively.Results From 2012 to 2019,the incidence of AIDS in China was on the rise annual percentage change(APC)(APC=7.62%,95%CI:6.52%-9.92%,P<0.001),and from 2019 to 2021,there was a decline in the incidence rate(APC=-7.64%,95%CI:-14.12%-0.74%,P=0.030).Global autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran′s I value increased from 0.240 in 2012 to 0.414 in 2021,indicating an increase in positive spatial autocorrelation.In the local spatial autocorrelation analysis,Guizhou Province,Yunnan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region remained in a"high-high"cluster pattern,whereas Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Liaoning Province were consistently in a"low-low"cluster pattern;Henan Province and Sichuan Province changed patterns over time.Hotspot analysis showed that hotspot clusters had formed in Guizhou and other provinces,indicating a spreading trend.The spatio-temporal scan revealed that Yunnan Province,Guizhou Province,Sichuan Province,Chongqing City and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region were the key areas of the epidemic,and the SDE method suggested that the focus of the disease shifted from Sichuan Province and Chongqing City to the southeast.Conclusions This study reveals the spatio-temporal characteristics of the AIDS epidemic in China;Prevention and control should be based on these patterns to allocate resources accurately and strengthen interventions in key regions.
作者
王超艺
张椿卉
张译予
杨靖涵
孔雨佳
石福艳
王素珍
WANG Chaoyi;ZHANG Chunhui;ZHANG Yiyu;YANG Jinghan;KONG Yujia;SHI Fuyan;WANG Suzhen(Department of Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Shandong Second Medical University,Weifang,261053,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
北大核心
2025年第8期982-987,共6页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
国家自然科学基金(81872719)
国家自然科学基金青年基金(81803337)
山东省科技厅自然科学基金(ZR2019MH034,ZR2023MH313)。
关键词
艾滋病
时空聚集
流行趋势
空间自相关
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
Spatial-temporal aggregation
Epidemic trend
Spatial autocorrelation
