摘要
目的分析四川省甲型病毒肝炎(简称“甲肝”)的时空特征和聚集风险,为制定高效、科学的甲肝防控策略提供依据。方法收集整理中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告管理子系统中2014—2023年四川省甲型肝炎数据,对四川省甲肝的空间自相关和局部自相关的分析均使用Arcgis 10.8软件来实现操作,采用SatScan 9.4软件分析四川省甲肝的时间和空间关联,采用SPSS 23.0软件进行差异检验,率的比较采用χ^(2)检验,检验水准α=0.05。结果四川省甲肝发病率逐年下降,从2014年的3.23/10万降至2022年的0.97/10万。甲肝病例在全年各月均有报告,但以春夏季为高发期。甘孜州、凉山州、阿坝州、攀枝花市和眉山市是甲肝发病率最高的5个地区,平均发病率分别为10.06/10万、7.52/10万、4.13/10万、2.85/10万和2.68/10万。男女发病率之比为1.47∶1,男性高于女性。空间分析结果显示,2014—2015年、2017—2020年及2022年,四川省甲肝发病率呈现显著的空间正相关性。局部聚类分析显示,高发病率区域主要集中在甘孜自治州,而南充市和广安市则形成低发病率聚类区。时空扫描分析进一步揭示,凉山州、攀枝花市、乐山市和甘孜州为长期的高风险聚集区,而自贡市、成都市和凉山州在不同年份中交替成为高风险区域。结论2014—2023年四川省甲肝发病呈显著下降趋势,但西部地区仍是疫情聚集的主要区域。针对这一现状,应加强对重点地区的监测与防控,制定并实施精细化的区域防控策略,以有效遏制甲肝疫情的扩散。
Objective To investigate the relationship and possible clustering hazards of temporal and spatial patterns of hepatitis A virus(abbreviated as“hepatitis A”)in Sichuan Province,to provide the basis for formulating efficient and scientific prevention and control strategy of hepatitis A.Methods The data of hepatitis A was collected and arranged from China's Secondary Management System for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control in Sichuan Province from 2014 to 2023.Arcgis 10.8 software was employed to conduct spatial and local autocorrelation analyses of hepatitis A cases in Sichuan Province.The spatio-temporal correlations of hepatitis A cases in Sichuan Province were analyzed and described using SatScan 9.4 software.SPSS 23.0 was used to test the difference,χ^(2)test was used to compare the rates,the test levelα=0.05.Results From 2014 to 2023,the occurrence of hepatitis A in Sichuan decreased,falling from 3.23/105 individuals in 2014 to 0.97/105 in 2022.Hepatitis A cases were reported in various months of the year,with a peak period was spring and summer.The five regions with the highest hepatitis A incidence in the province were Ganzi Prefecture,Liangshan Prefecture,Aba Prefecture,Panzhihua City and Meishan City,with respective average incidences of 10.06/105,752/105,4.13/105,285/105,and 2.68/105.The ratio of incidence of male to female was 1.47 to 1,that of male was higher than that of female.The results of spatial analysis showed that the incidence of hepatitis A in Sichuan Province showed a significant spatial positive correlation in the years 2014-2015,2017-2020,and 2022.Local cluster analysis showed that high incidence area mainly concentrated in Ganzi Autonomous Prefecture,while the low incidence area was concentrated in Nanchong City and Guang'an City;From 2014 to 2023,the first types of collection areas were spatially scanned in Liangshan,Panzhihua,Leshan and Ganzi prefectures.Spatiotemporal scanning analysis futher revealed,in Zigong City,Chengdu City and Liangshan Prefecture alternately became the high-risk areas in different years.Conclusions From 2014 to 2023,the incidence of hepatitis A in Sichuan presented a decreasing trend,with the western region of Sichuan becoming a key area for epidemics.Therefore,we should strengthen monitoring,prevention and control in key areas,formulate and implement refined regional prevention and control strategies,and so that to effectively control the spread of hepatitis A epidemic.
作者
赵尧
魏荣杰
张霞
邱晓玲
杨长虹
ZHAO Yao;WEI Rongjie;ZHANG Xia;QIU Xiaoling;YANG Changhong(Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China;Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China;Aba Prefecture Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Aba 624600,Sichuan Province,China;Ziyang City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Ziyang 641300,Sichuan Province,China.)
出处
《预防医学情报杂志》
2025年第9期1133-1140,1215,共9页
Journal of Preventive Medicine Information
基金
四川省科技计划项目(项目编号:2022YFS0641
2020TDR0401)
美国国立卫生研究院过敏与传染病预防控制项目(项目编号:5R01AI125842-02)
重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项重点项目(项目编号:cstc2020jscx-cylhX0003)
四川现场流行病学培训项目第7期。
关键词
甲型病毒性肝炎
发病率
时空聚集
四川省
viral hepatitis A
morbidity
spatiotemporal aggregation
Sichuan Province
