摘要
由于存在应用场景不同、财税政策差异的问题,导致目前海外光伏发电项目的平准化度电成本(LCOE)计算模型版本众多,有必要进行系统性研究,以推动其规范使用和有效应用。基于此,首先对5种国内外广泛应用的LCOE计算模型的定义和计算方式进行了介绍,然后结合海外某光伏发电项目实例进行了LCOE计算和LCOE对各影响因素的敏感性分析,最后研究了不同LCOE计算模型在不同应用场景中的适用性,并提出了相关建议。分析结果显示:1)5种LCOE计算模型的本质均是发电项目全生命周期内所有成本与全部上网电量折现的比值;差异在于计算全生命周期内的LCOE时,考虑的因素不同。2)从敏感性分析来看,5种LCOE计算模型得到的影响因素敏感性曲线变化趋势一致;上网电量对LCOE影响最大,残值率对LCOE几乎无影响;上网电量与LCOE呈负相关,初始投资、折现率和运维费用与LCOE呈正相关。3)在进行方案比较或竞标决策时,建议首选Fraunhofer ISE的LCOE计算模型或IRENA的LCOE计算模型;在进行投资决策时,建议首选NREL的LCOE计算模型;在创建LCOE学习曲线模型或进行宏观预测时,建议首选Fraunhofer ISE的LCOE计算模型或IRENA的LCOE计算模型。4)由于各国的财税政策存在差异,导致海外光伏发电项目在进行LCOE计算时,不宜采用中国行业标准的LCOE计算模型。
Due to differences in application scenarios and financial and tax policies,there are numerous versions of LCOE calculation models for overseas PV power generation projects.It is necessary to conduct systematic research to promote their standardized use and effective application.Based on this,this paper first introduces the definitions and calculation methods of five widely used LCOE calculation models at home and abroad.Then,combined with an overseas PV power generation project example,LCOE calculation and sensitivity analysis of LCOE to various influencing factors are carried out.Finally,the applicability of different LCOE calculation models in different application scenarios is studied,and relevant suggestions are proposed.The analysis results show that:1)The essence of the five calculation models is the ratio of all costs throughout the entire lifecycle of the power generation project to the discounted total amount of on grid electricity.The difference lies in the factors considered when calculating LCOE throughout the entire lifecycle.2)From the perspective of sensitivity analysis,the sensitivity curves of the influencing factors obtained from the five LCOE calculation models show consistent trends.The amount of on grid electricity has the greatest impact on LCOE,while the residual value rate has almost no effect on LCOE.On grid electricity is negatively correlated with LCOE,while initial investment,discount rate,and operation and maintenance fees are positively correlated with LCOE.3)When comparing schemes or making bidding decisions,it is recommended to first choose Fraunhofer ISE's LCOE calculation model or IRENA's LCOE calculation model.When making investment decisions,it is recommended to first use the LCOE calculation model of NREL.When creating LCOE learning curve models or making macro predictions,it is recommended to first choose Fraunhofer ISE's LCOE calculation model or IRENA's LCOE calculation model.4)Due to differences in financial and tax policies among countries,it is not advisable to use the LCOE calculation model of the Chinese industry standard for LCOE calculation in overseas PV power generation projects.
作者
吕康
梁音
秦晓飞
李文博
章凯
孙逸
Lyu Kang;Liang Yin;Qin Xiaofei;Li Wenbo;Zhang Kai;Sun Yi(PowerChina Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi'an 710065,China)
出处
《太阳能》
2025年第9期13-19,共7页
Solar Energy
关键词
海外光伏发电项目
平准化度电成本计算模型
敏感性分析
应用场景
overseas PV power generation projects
LCOE calculation models
sensitivity analysis
application scenarios
