摘要
掌握光伏发电的随机特性对于含光伏发电的电力系统规划及运行具有重要意义。提出了一种光伏电站出力随机特性的分析方法,将光伏发电出力的确定性因素与不确定因素相分离,首先采用全球太阳辐射强度模型对光伏发电出力的确定性成分建模,同时引入光伏出力遮挡因子的概念对光伏发电出力的不确定性成分建模,从而形成光伏发电出力的完整模型描述。采用实证分析的方法,从概率分布、波动特性等方面研究了光伏出力遮挡因子的随机特性,并分析了光伏出力的空间相关性。
In light of the significance of the random characteristics of photovoltaic （PV） power generation to research on power system planning and operation involving PV, an analytic method is proposed for assessing the stochastic characteristics of PV power stations by separating the certainty and uncertainty stochastic parts of PV output time series. The global solar radiation model is adopted first to model the certainty part of the PV output, while the concept of PV output shedding factor is introduced to assess the uncertainty part of PV output to form a complete model description. By means of empirical analysis of real data of PV, the stochastic characteristics of the PV output shedding factor, in terms of the probabilistic distribution and the intermittency are investigated along with the spatial correlation of PV output.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期6-13,共8页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A101)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51307092,51325702)
国家电网公司科技项目“新能源发电接纳能力评估分析平台研发与示范应用”~~
关键词
光伏发电
太阳辐射
随机特性分析
遮挡因子
空间相关性
photovoltaic power generation
solar radiation
random characteristic analysis
shedding factor
spatial correlation
