摘要
在实现“双碳”目标的进程中,构建新型电力体系是我国顺利向低碳方向转型的重要保障,煤电与可再生能源之间的积极融合是促进能源转型的有效手段,然而在各种风险因素的干扰下,发电不稳定问题愈发显著。因此,基于系统动力学理论知识,以东北电力系统2021年9—11月的系统运行状态为例,建立“能源—电力”系统模型,对电力供应量、电力需求量以及电力供应失效率进行仿真分析,并根据3种不同的风险因素:极寒天气、设计缺陷、违章操作,制定了3个不同情景。对不同情景分析得知:极寒天气是导致电力供应失效率最大的风险因素,且主要原因在于需求端的急剧增长;设计缺陷对发电系统的影响具有累积性和持续性;违章操作对“能源—电力”系统的影响呈现出故障诱导性。
In the process of realizing the goal of"double carbon",building a new power system is an important guarantee for China′s smooth transition to low carbon.The active integration between coal-fired power and renewable energy is an effective means to effectively promote energy transformation.However,under the interference of various risk factors,the problem of unstable power generation is becoming more and more obvious.Therefore,based on the theory of system dynamics,taking the operation state of Northeast Power System from September to November in 2021 as an example,an"energy-electricity"system model is established,and the power supply,power demand and power supply failure rate are simulated and analyzed.According to three different risk factors:extremely cold weather,design defects and human interference,three different scenarios are formulated.The analysis of different scenarios shows that extreme cold weather is the biggest risk factor leading to the failure rate of power supply,and the main reason lies in the rapid growth of demand side;The influence of design defects on power generation system is cumulative and persistent;The influence of illegal operation on"energy-electricity"system is fault-induced.Based on this,some suggestions are put forward.
作者
巩前胜
符佳静
GONG Qiansheng;FU Jiajing(School of Economics and Management,Xi′an Shiyou University,Xi′an 710054,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2025年第7期38-46,共9页
Coal Economic Research
基金
陕西省社会科学基金资助项目(2020R038)。
关键词
演化机理
新能源
煤电
电力系统
系统动力学
风险演化
evolution mechanism
new energy
coal and electricity
electric power system
system dynamics
risk evolution
