摘要
“碳达峰·碳中和”目标下,中国将建立以风、光等新能源为主体的新型电力系统。随着能源结构和系统形态的改变,电力系统供需双侧的不确定性将显著增强,供需失配等系统风险将愈发突出。准确评估系统风险水平对新型电力系统的规划和运行都具有重要意义。文中分析了新型电力系统的典型风险特征,论述了一套适用于新型电力系统的风险评估理论体系。首先,梳理了描述系统风险的三级风险指标体系,涵盖了供需失配的上行和下行风险以及碳排放相关的风险;然后,总结了体现新型电力系统风险特征的风险评估方法,在状态产生环节刻画多源风险因素,在状态分析环节计算多级风险指标;最后,探讨了与风险评估有机融合的系统薄弱环节辨识方法,为风险预控提供量化决策依据。
Under the goals of“carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality”,China is building a new power system with wind,photovoltaic and other renewable energy as dominant sources.With the change of energy structure and system form,the uncertainty on both sides of supply and demand of the power systems will be significantly enhanced,and system risks such as supply and demand mismatch will become more prominent.Accurate assessment of system risk level is of great significance to the planning and operation of the new power system.The typical risk characteristics of the new power system are analyzed,and a risk assessment framework for the new power system is illustrated.First,a three-level risk index system is sorted out to describe the systematic risks,which covers the upstream and downstream risks of supply and demand mismatch and risks related to carbon emissions.Then,a risk assessment method that reflects the risk characteristics of the new power system is investigated,in which the multi-source risk factors are characterized in the system state generation phase and the multi-level risk indices are calculated in the state analysis phase.Finally,through organically integrating with the risk assessment,an identification method for the weak link of the new power system is discussed to provide quantitative decision-making basis for the risk pre-control.
作者
胡博
谢开贵
邵常政
潘聪聪
林铖嵘
赵宇生
HU Bo;XIE Kaigui;SHAO Changzheng;PAN Congcong;LIN Chengrong;ZHAO Yusheng(State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment&System Security and New Technology(Chongqing University),Chongqing 400044,China)
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期1-15,共15页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家自然科学基金委员会-国家电网公司智能电网联合基金资助项目(U1966601)。
关键词
新型电力系统
研究框架
风险
指标体系
风险评估
薄弱环节辨识
new power system
research framework
risk
index system
risk assessment
weak link identification
