摘要
为深入揭示集对分析在结构水资源学方法中的应用特点,并展望其主要发展趋势,结合现有研究成果,基于关系结构的方法论视角,归纳提出了由研究对象、研究变量、研究目标构成的结构水资源学方法系统三要素结构原理(简称三元结构原理)。结合该原理,系统阐述了集对分析在水资源系统建模、优化、识别、模拟、预测、评价、决策、推理等结构水资源学方法中的应用进展,指出集对分析在描述和处理研究变量与研究目标之间的不确定性论证关系方面具有明显优势。其中,前7种方法的实现过程反映了研究对象、研究变量、研究目标之间的信息传递,而推理方法的实现过程反映了论据、论证和结论关系之间的信息传递;与前7种方法相比,水资源系统推理方法的抽象性和复杂性层次更高。采用不确定性形成过程的物理成因分析与定量计算相结合的研究途径,深入开展更加系统化、更具开拓性的水资源集对分析方法探索是未来的重要发展趋势。
In order to deeply reveal the application characteristics of set pair analysis in structural water resources methodology and look forward to its main development trends,combined with existing research results,based on the methodological perspective of relational structure,a three-element structural principle of structural water resources methodology system consisting of research object,research variable,and research objective(abbreviated as the Ternary Structure Principle)was summarized and proposed.Based on the principle,the application progress of ensemble analysis in modeling,optimization,identification,simulation,prediction,evaluation,decision-making,reasoning and other methods of structural water resources methodology was systematically expounded.It is pointed out that set pair analysis had obvious advantages in describing and handling the uncertain argumentation relationship between research variables and research objectives.The implementation process of the first seven methods reflects the information transmission between the research object,research variables,and research objectives,while the implementation process of the inference method reflects the information transmission between the evidence,argumentation,and conclusion relationship.Compared with the first seven methods,the abstraction and complexity level of the water resources system inference method are higher.The research approach of combining physical cause analysis of uncertainty formation process with quantitative calculation is an important development trend in the future to explore more systematic and pioneering water resource set pair analysis methods.
作者
金菊良
周亮广
吴成国
周戎星
崔毅
蒋尚明
JIN Juliang;ZHOU Liangguang;WU Chengguo;ZHOU Rongxing;CUI Yi;JIANG Shangming(College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resource and Environmental System Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;School of Environment and Energy Engineering,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601;Huaihe River Conservancy Commission Water Conservancy Science Research Institute,Ministry of Water Resources,Anhui Province,Hefei 230088,China;Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Science and Intelligent Water Conservancy,Bengbu 233000,China)
出处
《水资源保护》
北大核心
2025年第5期180-195,共16页
Water Resources Protection
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(U2240223,52409001)
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US03,2408085ME135)。
关键词
集对分析
结构水资源学方法
研究方法论
亚里士多德三段论
三元结构原理
set pair analysis
structural water resources methodology
research methodology
Aristotle’s syllogism
the Ternary Structure Principle
