摘要
目的探讨清远市气温变化与呼吸系统疾病死亡风险之间的关系,为当地公共卫生策略制定提供科学依据。方法选取2018年1月1日至2022年12月31日清远市呼吸系统疾病死亡数据及气象资料,采用分布式滞后非线性模型量化温度与呼吸系统疾病死亡的相关性。结果Spearman相关分析显示,温度与NO_(2)、PM_(10)呈明显负相关(P<0.05);PM_(10)与气压、风速呈正相关(P<0.05);风速与SO_(2)、PM_(2.5)呈正相关(P<0.05)。日均温度对呼吸系统疾病的死亡风险呈“U”型,气温与死亡有关联性(P<0.05)。极端低气温对呼吸系统疾病最大健康效应出现在第3天,相对地危险度(RR)值为1.04[95%可信区间(95%CI)0.99~1.10]。极端高温对呼吸系统疾病最大健康效应出现在第1天,RR值为1.12(95%CI 1.01~1.25)。在极端低温时,呼吸系统疾病死亡健康效应呈现滞后性,在暴露14 d后达到最大健康效应,RR值为1.032(95%CI 1.015~1.049)。在极端高温时,呼吸系统疾病死亡呈急性健康效应,在暴露7 d后达到最大健康效应,RR值为1.043(95%CI 1.019~1.259)。结论气温变化尤其是极端气温显著影响清远市呼吸系统疾病死亡风险,具有滞后性和累积效应。建议加强高温和低温天气的健康预警,提高居民防护意识,完善公共卫生策略,以降低气温相关健康风险。
Objective To explore the relationship between temperature changes and the risk of respiratory disease mortality in Qingyuan City,and to provide a scientific basis for local public health strategy-making.Methods Data on respiratory disease mortality and meteorological factors in Qingyuan City from January 1,2018,to December 31,2022,were collected.The Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model(DLNM)was used to quantify the correlation between temperature and respiratory disease mortality.Results Spearman correlation analysis showed that temperature was significantly negatively correlated with NO_(2)and PM_(10)(P<0.05);PM_(10) was positively correlated with air pressure and wind speed(P<0.05);wind speed was positively correlated with SO_(2)and PM_(2.5)(P<0.05).The risk of death from respiratory diseases associated with daily average temperature showed a“U”shape,with a significant correlation between temperature and mortality(P<0.05).The maximum health effect of extreme low temperatures on respiratory diseases appeared on the 3rd day,with a relative risk(RR)of 1.04(95%CI 0.99-1.10).For extreme high temperatures,the maximum health effect on respiratory diseases occurred on the 1st day,with an RR of 1.12(95%CI 1.01-1.25).Under extreme low temperatures,the health effect on respiratory disease deaths showed a lag effect,reaching the maximum after 14 days of exposure(RR=1.032,95%CI 1.015-1.049).Under extreme high temperatures,respiratory disease deaths showed an acute health effect,with the maximum effect observed after 7 days of exposure(RR=1.043,95% CI 1.019-1.259).Conclusion Temperature changes,especially extreme temperatures,significantly affect the risk of respiratory disease mortality in Qingyuan City,with lagged and cumulative effects.It is recommended to strengthen h ealth warnings during periods of high and low temperatures,enhance residents awareness of protection,and improve public health strategies to reduce climate-related health risks.
作者
张家泳
罗燕东
郭莉敏
陈腾腾
ZHANG Jiayong;LUO Yandong;GUO Limin;CHEN Tengteng(Qingyuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Qingyuan,Guangdong 511500,China)
出处
《现代医药卫生》
2025年第8期1915-1919,1926,共6页
Journal of Modern Medicine & Health
基金
清远市科技计划项目(230914088723979)。
关键词
气温
呼吸系统疾病
分布滞后非线性模型
死亡
归因风险
Temperature
Respiratory diseases
Distributed lag non-linear model
Mortality
Attributable risk
