摘要
目的研究广州市2011—2016年日均气温对人群死亡的影响。方法利用广州市2011—2016年全人群逐日死亡人数的时间序列资料,结合同期气象资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温对人群死亡的滞后效应和累积效应。以广州市气温的P_(2.5)和P_(97.5)百分位数值估计极端气温的冷、热效应;以最适宜温度为参照,分别估计平均气温每上升或下降1℃的相对危险度。结果高温影响快速持续4 d;低温影响相对缓慢但持续时间长达两周;低温和高温对于全死因的滞后21 d累计相对危险度分别为1.013(95%CI:1.003~1.027),1.023(95%CI:1.006~1.050)。低温和高温对≥65岁组的人群,男性的累计效应有统计意义,低温对女性的滞后21 d累计相对危险度也有统计意义。结论高温和低温均造成人群死亡率上升,高温比低温的累计相对危险度高,但低温影响持续时间更长。老年人对低温和高温效应敏感,女性比男性对低温效应更加敏感。
Objectives To assess the effect of average daily temperature variation on mortality. Methods The delayed and cumulative effect of temperature change on mortality were examined by using a distributed lag non- linear model based on the data of daily death toll and the meteorological data in Guangzhou from 2011 to 2016. The extreme cold and thermal effect was estimated by the P2.5 and P97.5 of the temperature in Guangzhou. Take the opti- mum temperature as a reference, the relative risk was estimated by the average temperature going up or down each one degree Celsius （ 1 ℃ ）. Results The effect of higher temperature was strong and immediate, which could last four days, and the effect of lower temperature could last up to 14 days. For cold and thermal effect, the cumulative relative risk （RR） of mortality associated with 1℃ below and over the minimum mortality temperature （MMT） at 0 -21 days lagged behind was 1. 013 （95% CI： 1. 003 - 1. 027） and 1. 023（95% CI：1. 006 - 1. 050） respectively for all causes of death. The effect of higher temperature and lower temperature was statistically significant for male over 65 year-old; and the effect of lower temperature was statistically significant for females at 21 days lagged be- hind. Conclusions Both higher temperature and lower temperature might have impact on mortality. Particularly, the effect of lower temperature lagged longer than higher temperature. The result indicated that the public awareness and the ability of cold protection should be improved for residents in sub-tropical region. Elder people were more sensitive to the effect of lower temperature and higher temperature, and female was more sensitive than male to theeffect of lower temperature.
作者
宋韶芳
刘华章
刘于飞
李科
董航
SONG Shaofang, LIU Huazhang, LIU Yufei, LIKe, DONG Hang
出处
《环境卫生学杂志》
2018年第1期46-50,共5页
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE
关键词
日均气温
日死亡人数
时间序列
分布滞后非线性模型
daily average temperature, daily death toll, time series, distributed lag non-linear model
