摘要
系统评估我国当前及未来臭氧短期暴露导致的全疾病非意外过早死亡人数,并量化气候变暖背景下,温度对臭氧暴露健康损害的修饰效果,具有重要的公共卫生意义.2013~2021年我国臭氧日最大8 h平均浓度(MDA8 O_(3))来自TAP(Tracking Air Pollution in China)数据集,未来2030和2060年臭氧浓度来自CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)模拟的不同社会发展路径(shared socioeconomic pathways,SSPs)的结果.2013~2021年,温度修饰下我国臭氧短期暴露导致的过早死亡人数为114.9千人(95%CI:90.1~139.9千人),与未考虑温度修饰的影响相比,其效果使过早死亡人数增加1022人(95%CI:638~4875人),且主要叠加在臭氧健康损害的高风险地区.温度恶化的臭氧健康损害会在暖季影响至全国,7月份的温度修饰效应最大,贡献16%(2227人(95%CI:2188~2378人))的过早死亡人数.相较于2021年,SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,我国2030和2060年因臭氧短期暴露导致的过早死亡人数均显著增加,主要原因是浓度升高和老龄人口恶化.其中,温度修饰的最大贡献可达8.3%.但在SSP1-2.6,我国未来臭氧健康损害持续下降,主要原因是减少的臭氧浓度.其中,温度的修饰效果也因臭氧浓度的降低而减弱,甚至改善健康损害,说明持续改善臭氧空气质量既能减少臭氧暴露的危害,也能减弱未来更暖气候背景下温度的修饰效果.
In recent years,ozone(O_(3))has become one of the major air pollutants in China,and exposure to high concentrations of O_(3)pollution is harmful to human health.Epidemiological studies have pointed out that temperature has a regulatory effect on the association between O_(3)and premature death.This means that when the temperature rises,the health hazard effect of O_(3)exposure also increases.However,most previous studies on the impact of short-term O_(3)exposure on human health tend to treat temperature as a confounding factor,ignoring its modifying effect which will underestimate the real impact of O_(3)-realted disease burden.Some studies have quantitatively identified the corresponding coefficients between short-term O_(3)exposure and non-accidental total premature mortality under different temperature stratifications,but there is no study to further quantitatively analyze the number of premature deaths caused by temperature-modified short-term effect of ozone exposure on health burden,as well as the contribution of temperature-modified effect.Therefore,it is of public health significance to systematically assess the number of all non-accidental premature deaths due to short-term ozone exposure in China at present and in the future,and to quantify the modification effects of temperature on the health damages of ozone exposure under climate warming.The daily maximum 8-hourly average concentrations of ozone(MDA8 O_(3))in China during 2013-2021 are obtained from the high-resolution dataset of TAP(Tracking Air Pollution in China),and the future ozone concentrations for years 2030 and 2060 under different SSPs(shared socioeconomic pathways)are simulated by CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)models.The national annual cumulative excessive exposure concentration of MDA8 O_(3)(larger than critical concentration of 67.5μg m^(-3))averaged over 2013-2021 is 6925.0μg m^(-3).The ozone exposure at the low(high)temperature strata is found mainly in sparsely populated regions(densely populated regions)with a population-weighted annual cumulative excessive exposure concentration of 313.6(3696.5)μg m^(-3),which means that the higher the temperature,the more severe impacts of ozone on health.The health impacts of temperature-modified short-term ozone exposure in China during 2013-2021 have increased significantly with the value of 10.1 thousand a^(-1)(95%CI:8.0-12.3 thousand a^(-1));the 9-year average of premature deaths is 114.9 thousand(95%CI:90.1-139.9 thousand),of which the temperature-modified effect contributes 1022 persons(95%CI:638-4875 persons),and the impacts are mainly superimposed on areas where ozone-related health damage is large.The modification effects of temperature on the ozone-related mortality sweep across the whole country during the high-risk warm seasons;the largest impact is found in July with the contribution of 16%(2227 persons(95%CI:2188-2378 persons)).Compared to 2021,all the scenarios of SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 present a significant increase in the number of premature deaths due to short-term ozone exposure in China for years 2030 and 2060(+21.5-+281.2 thousand),and the temperature-modified effect can contribute up to 8.3%.The major factors for the increased mortalities are the worsened ozone pollution and the deterioration of population aging.However,under the scenario of SSP1-2.6,due to the improved air quality,the predicted ozone-related premature deaths in years 2030 and 2060 are significantly lower than that in 2021(-29.1--7.7 thousand).Meanwhile,the temperature-modified effects are attenuated under this scenario,even help to improve the health burden,especially in 2060,suggesting that the sustained improvements in ozone air quality will not only reduce the number of premature deaths due to ozone exposure,but also attenuate the modifying effects of temperature under the future climate warming including the impacts of aging-dominated health damages.
作者
朱佳
冯子珈
陈磊
廖宏
Jia Zhu;Zijia Feng;Lei Chen;Hong Liao(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《科学通报》
北大核心
2025年第22期3629-3641,共13页
Chinese Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金(42293323,42007195,42305121)
国家重点研发计划(2019YFA0606804,2022YFE0136100)
江苏省自然科学基金(BK20220031)资助。
关键词
臭氧
短期暴露
过早死亡人数
温度修饰作用
气候变化
ozone
short-term exposure
premature mortality
temperature-modified effect
climate change
