摘要
气候变化是21世纪人类所面临的最大环境挑战.人类活动是引起臭氧污染和全球变暖的最主要原因,二者同根同源并且能够彼此影响.未来气候变暖的“气候惩罚”效应会进一步促进人为排放较强区域臭氧浓度的升高,而臭氧可以通过其正向辐射强迫作用致使大气升温.臭氧污染和全球温度变化对于人体健康具有潜在的联合作用,流行病学研究主要通过分层分析和纳入交互作用项的方式探究二者协同健康影响.根据现有的研究证据,高温与臭氧复合暴露增加人群死亡风险的研究证据最为充分,低温和臭氧复合暴露的健康影响还存在较大的不确定性,温度和臭氧协同作用超额死亡风险定量评价从1.73%~12.31%不等.心肺疾病患者和老年人是二者复合暴露的潜在易感人群.然而,目前对于这种协同作用超额风险的定量研究证据比较有限,研究结果仍存在较大的不确定性.未来仍需要多中心、大样本量的流行病学研究量化这种协同作用的大小,从而为更加准确、全面评估疾病负担和制定公共卫生政策提供依据.
Climate change is one of the most formidable health challenges of the 21st century.Human activities,particularly the combustion of fossil fuels,contribute significantly to both ozone pollution and global warming.These phenomena not only originate from the same sources but also interact dynamically.The“climate penalty”effect,which is associated with global warming,is expected to increase ozone levels in regions with substantial human-generated emissions.Moreover,ozone exacerbates atmospheric warming as a greenhouse gas due to its positive radiative forcing.The concurrent exposure to increased temperatures and heightened ozone pollution represents one of the most prevalent combined environmental threats currently.As climate change progresses,the frequency and severity of simultaneous exposure to elevated temperatures and increased ozone levels are expected to rise,posing significant health challenges both now and in the future.Therefore,there is an urgent need for research to determine whether this dual exposure contributes to additional health risks.To enhance our understanding of the health impacts of combined ozone and temperature exposures,we conducted a comprehensive review of epidemiological studies from SCI-indexed journals dating back to 1990,ultimately including 39 studies in our review.Recent epidemiologic research focusing on this combined effect has primarily used stratified analyses and interaction terms to explore their synergistic effects.In studies stratified by temperature or ozone,the strongest evidence emerged from the simultaneous exposure to both ozone and elevated temperature,indicating an increased risk of mortality.However,the health consequences of combined exposure to lower temperatures and ozone remain less understood.Variability in exposure assessment and population adaptation to climate contribute significantly to the heterogeneity of research findings.Notably,two multicenter studies have observed an increased risk of ozone-related mortality when temperatures deviate from comfortable levels,no matter higher or lower.Particularly vulnerable groups include individuals with cardiovascular and respiratory conditions,and the elderly,who face heightened mortality risks from this dual exposure.Efforts have been made to assess the synergistic health impacts of ozone and temperature both qualitatively and quantitatively by establishing interaction terms.The synergistic health effects of combined exposure to ozone and heat are supported by extensive and consistent evidence.Research indicates that the excess mortality risk due to co-exposure to ozone and temperature ranges from 1.73%to 12.31%.Nevertheless,the full extent of this risk has yet to be definitively established,highlighting the ongoing need for further investigation.Ozone and temperature may interact in multiple ways to produce shared health effects.The mechanisms underpinning the synergistic health impacts include higher ozone exposure resulting from the simultaneous occurrence of elevated ambient ozone concentrations and temperatures,along with interconnected biological mechanisms.To date,only two studies have explored the biological mechanisms behind these synergistic effects.Combined exposure to high temperatures and ozone may impact cardiovascular health by disrupting the normal functioning of the autonomic nervous system and the fibrinolytic system.Addressing the synergistic health effects of temperature and ozone is critical for accurately assessing health risks in future climate change scenarios.Well-designed multicenter epidemiological studies offer a powerful means to further explore the synergistic health effects of ozone and temperature.The varied exposure conditions around the world provide a unique opportunity to examine the interactions between temperature and ozone pollution in depth.This will play a crucial role in driving climate change mitigation and improving urban air quality,which are essential for adapting to future climate changes.
作者
张毅
姚昊阳
贾树愚
宫继成
Yi Zhang;Haoyang Yao;Shuyu Jia;Jicheng Gong(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)
出处
《科学通报》
北大核心
2025年第22期3584-3593,共10页
Chinese Science Bulletin
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0606)
国家自然科学基金重大项目(42293324)资助。
关键词
温度
臭氧
协同健康效应
死亡风险
气候变化
temperature
climate change
ozone
synergistic health effects
mortality
