摘要
在我国原油对外依存度较高的背景下,国际油价波动对我国工业经济的影响不容忽视。本文将油价波动的结构性冲击进行分解,利用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR)考察了2005—2023年不同冲击对油价波动的影响,分析了其对我国工业经济增长及PPI的影响,并进一步探索了其对工业行业影响的异质性。结果表明:①供给冲击、总需求冲击对油价的影响为正,流动性需求冲击对油价的影响为负。②供给冲击、总需求冲击对工业增长的影响为正,投机需求冲击对工业增长的影响为负;总需求冲击对PPI的影响为正,流动性需求冲击对PPI的影响为负。③供给冲击对以原油及相关产品为主要原材料的行业为正向影响,对处于石油生产及加工产业链的行业或以煤炭等为主要原材料的行业为负向影响;总需求冲击对大部分行业有正向影响,对一些处于煤炭生产及加工产业链的行业和以原油为重要原材料的行业有一定负向影响;投机需求冲击对绝大部分行业为负向影响,对处于煤炭生产及加工产业链的行业和以煤炭为主要原材料的行业为正向影响;流动性冲击对大部分行业为负向影响,对以原油及相关产品作为重要原材料的行业为正向影响。为此,建议加快推进原油储备建设,进一步巩固并拓展外部需求,健全原油期货市场建设。
Given the high dependence of China on imported crude oil,the impact of international oil price fluctuations on China’s industrial economy is highly important.This article decomposes the structural shocks of oil price fluctuations and uses a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-SV-VAR)to examine the impact of different shocks on oil price fluctuations from 2005 to 2023.It analyzes their effects on China’s industrial economic growth and PPI,and further explores the heterogeneity of their impact on the industrial sector.The results indicate that:①Supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks have a positive impact on oil prices,while liquidity demand shocks have a negative impact on oil prices.②The impact of supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks on industrial growth is positive,while speculative demand shocks have a negative impact on industrial growth;The impact of aggregate demand shocks on PPI is positive,while the impact of liquidity demand shocks on PPI is negative.The supply shock has a positive impact on industries that mainly③use crude oil and related products as raw materials,and a negative impact on industries that are in the oil production and processing industrial chain or industries that mainly use coal as raw materials.The overall demand shock has a positive impact on most industries,but has a certain negative impact on some industries in the coal production and processing industrial chain and industries that use crude oil as an important raw material.Speculative demand shock has a negative impact on the vast majority of industries,but a positive impact on industries in the coal production and processing industrial chain and industries that rely mainly on coal as raw material.Liquidity shocks have a negative impact on most industries and a positive impact on industries that use crude oil and related products as important raw materials.Therefore,it is suggested accelerating the construction of crude oil reserves,further consolidating and expanding external demand,and establishing a sound crude oil futures market.
作者
马婧
Ma Jing(Research Institute of Statistical Sciences,NBS)
出处
《调研世界》
2025年第8期33-47,共15页
The World of Survey and Research
