摘要
2025年上半年,全球石油需求增速低于2024年同期,国际石油市场在复杂多变的全球经济环境与地缘政治格局中呈现震荡下行走势。需求侧受特朗普“对等关税”政策频繁变动拖累,全球石油需求增量有限;供给端则因“欧佩克+”退出额外自愿减产与北美产量回升,全球石油供应增加;叠加地缘政治冲突持续扰动市场因素,国际油价波动加剧。下半年,市场将面临经济增长放缓、供需持续宽松导致库存增加、地缘风险不确定性增加等多重挑战,预计油价将维持偏弱的震荡格局。中国亟需采取“三维战略”应对变局:夯实国内资源基础,持续推进重要能源资源增储上产;鼓励石油企业把握国际油价相对低位的时间窗口,强化上游资源战略布局;加速构建多级储备体系,并灵活运用原油期货、期权、掉期等金融工具建立价格波动防火墙。通过国内增产保供、海外资源拓展、储备能力建设的协同推进,实现能源安全保障与经营效益的动态平衡。
In the first half of 2025,global oil demand growth decelerated compared to the same period in 2024,with the international oil market exhibiting a downward trajectory amid a complex and volatile global economic environment and geopolitical landscape.Demand was weakened by frequent shifts in the Trump administration’s“reciprocal tariffs”policy,constraining the global oil demand increment.Supply increased due to the“OPEC+”alliance exiting additional voluntary production cuts coupled with a rebound in North American output.Volatility in international oil prices amplified as geopolitical conflicts persistently disturbed the market.For the second half of the year,the market will confront multiple challenges including slowing economic growth,inventory builds resulting from sustained supply-demand looseness,and heightened uncertainty surrounding geopolitical risks.Oil prices are consequently anticipated to persist within a weak oscillation pattern.China should prioritize adopting a three-dimensional strategy to navigate the evolving landscape,namely consolidating the domestic resource base and advancing critical energy resource exploration for increased reserves and production,encouraging oil companies to leverage the period of relatively low international oil prices to enhance upstream resource strategic layout,accelerating the development of a multi-level reserve systems,and flexibly deploying crude oil futures,options,swaps,and other financial instruments to establish risk mitigation mechanisms against price fluctuations.Synergistic integration of domestic production and supply enhancement,overseas resource expansion,and reserve capacity building will facilitate the realization of a dynamic equilibrium between energy security and operational efficiency.
作者
孙文佳
陈聪
刘凯雷
王利宁
石洪宇
SUN Wenjia;CHEN Cong;LIU Kailei;WANG Lining;SHI Hongyu(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast;Energy Reserve Department of National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2025年第7期66-72,共7页
International Petroleum Economics
