摘要
城市特定区域往往同时存在路内、路外和共享三种停车设施,它们的服务特征具有显著差异.区域内交通系统在其演化过程及对其状态指标的观测过程中通常均存在不确定.本文以最小化区域内交通参与者总出行成本(包括区域通行成本、寻泊成本、管理成本和步行成本)为目标,构建基于滚动优化与数据融合估计的双驱动模型,对区域多类型停车服务的动态供给策略进行设计,并通过蒙特卡罗数值模拟验证了策略的有效性.研究发现:首先,所构建的动态优化问题可等价转化为带有不等式约束的二次规划问题,且该规划问题的解若存在则一定为唯一全局最优解;其次,在考虑过程和观测两类不确定性的情况下,系统观测结果与系统目标轨迹之间会存在较大误差;最后,引入卡尔曼滤波器能够有效减少后验状态估计与系统目标轨迹之间的误差,进而提高区域内通行效率并降低总出行成本.
Three types of parking facilities,i.e.,on-street,off-street,and shared parking facilities,often coexist in an urban region,and their service characteristics are significantly different.The traffic system within the region typically exhibits uncertainty both in its evolutionary processes and in the observation of its state indicators.This study aims to minimize the total travel cost of participants in the regional traffic system,including area transit costs,parking search costs,management costs,and walking costs.To achieve this,a dual-driven model based on rolling optimization and data fusion estimation is proposed to design dynamic supply strategies for multi-type parking services in the region.The effectiveness of the strategy is verified through Monte Carlo numerical simulations.As a result,it is found that:First,the proposed dynamic optimization problem can be equivalently transformed into a quadratic programming problem with inequality constraints,and if a solution exists,it is guaranteed to be the unique global optimum;second,when considering uncertainties in both process and observation,a significant discrepancy may arise between the system observation outcomes and the system's target trajectory;finally,the introduction of Kalman filter can effectively reduce the gap between the posterior state estimation and the target trajectory,thereby enhancing traffic efficiency in the region and reducing the total travel cost.
作者
王鹏飞
张楚
王湘玉
刘鹏
王景鹏
WANG Pengfei;ZHANG Chu;WANG Xiangyu;LIU Peng;WANG Jingpeng(Key Laboratory of Green Construction and Intelligent Maintenance for Civil Engineering of Hebei Province,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China;Key Laboratory of Intelligent Analysis and Decision for Traffic System of Qinhuangdao City,College of Urban Construction,Hebei Normal University of Science&Technology,Qinhuangdao 066004,China;MOE Key Laboratory of Complex System Analysis and Management Decision,School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;School of Management,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China)
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
北大核心
2025年第6期2068-2081,共14页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(72371097,72471017,72288101)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(21YJCZH162)。
关键词
城市交通
多类型停车
滚动优化
数据融合估计
过程与观测不确定性
urban traffic
multi-type parking
rolling optimization
data fusion estimation
process and observational uncertainty
