摘要
目的分析1990-2021年中国肺癌发病趋势,并预测未来发病趋势,为中国肺癌的防治工作提供参考依据。方法本研究数据来自全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2021年数据,下载1990—2021年中国肺癌发病人数及年龄标化发病率,采用R Studio 4.4.2软件分析不同年份、不同性别肺癌年龄标化发病率。采用Joinpoint回归模型将肺癌的发病趋势分成不同阶段,分别计算其年变化百分率(APC)及年平均变化百分率(AAPC);采用年龄-时期-队列模型分析1990—2021年中国肺癌年龄、时期和出生队列对肺癌发病率的影响;采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测2022—2036年中国肺癌年龄标化发病率。结果1990—2020年中国肺癌年龄标化发病率整体呈上升趋势,且男性肺癌患者居多,但女性肺癌发病率增长幅度较高。Joinpoint回归分析结果显示,1990—2021年中国肺癌发病率整体呈上升趋势[AAPC=0.94%,95%CI(0.75%~1.13%)],其中男性肺癌发病率整体呈上升趋势[AAPC=1.18%,95%CI(1.01%~1.30%)],女性肺癌发病率也整体呈上升趋势[AAPC=0.85%,95%CI(0.66%~1.05%)]。年龄-时期-队列模型分析结果显示,肺癌发病率随年龄增长呈明显上升趋势,1992—2012年各年龄段人群肺癌发病率均呈递增态势,肺癌发病年龄呈年轻化趋势。BAPC模型分析结果显示,与2021年相比,预测2036年中国男性肺癌年龄标化发病率上升幅度为4.8%,中国女性肺癌年龄标化发病率上升幅度为35.7%。结论1990—2021年中国肺癌发病率整体呈上升趋势,肺癌发病率随年龄增长呈明显上升趋势,肺癌发病年龄呈年轻化趋势;预测2021—2036年中国女性肺癌发病率上升幅度可能明显高于男性。
Objective To analyze the incidence trend of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021,and to predict the future incidence trend,so as to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of lung cancer in China.Methods The data of this study were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD)2021 data.The number of lung cancer cases and age-standardized incidence rates in China from 1990 to 2021 were downloaded.R Studio 4.4.2 software was used to analyze the age-standardized incidence rates of lung cancer in different years and gender.The Joinpoint regression model was used to divide the incidence trend of lung cancer into different stages,and the annual percentage change(APC)and annual average percentage change(AAPC)were calculated respectively.The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age,time and birth cohort on the incidence of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021.Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict the age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer in China from 2022 to 2036.Results From 1990 to 2020,the age-standardized incidence of lung cancer in China showed an overall upward trend,and the majority of lung cancer patients were male,but the incidence of lung cancer in women increased by a higher rate.The results of Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence of lung cancer in China showed an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2021[AAPC=0.94%,95%CI(0.75%-1.13%)].Among them,the incidence of lung cancer in males showed an overall upward trend[AAPC=1.18%,95%CI(1.01%-1.30%)],and the incidence of lung cancer in females also showed an overall upward trend[AAPC=0.85%,95%CI(0.66%-1.05%)].The results of age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the incidence of lung cancer increased significantly with age.The incidence of lung cancer in all age groups increased from 1992 to 2012,and the age of lung cancer onset showed a younger trend.The results of BAPC model analysis showed that compared with 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer in Chinese men was predicted to increase by 4.8%in 2036,and the age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer in Chinese women was predicted to increase by 35.7%.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,the incidence of lung cancer in China shows an overall upward trend.The incidence of lung cancer shows a significant upward trend with age,and the age of lung cancer onset shows a younger trend.It is predicted that the incidence of lung cancer in Chinese women may increase significantly higher than that in men from 2021 to 2036.
作者
何杰
李静
尹昕然
雷震
HE Jie;LI Jing;YIN Xinran;LEI Zhen(Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,North Sichuan Medical College,Nanchong 637000,China)
出处
《实用心脑肺血管病杂志》
2025年第8期1-5,共5页
Practical Journal of Cardiac Cerebral Pneumal and Vascular Disease
关键词
肺肿瘤
肺癌
发病率
全球疾病负担研究
趋势
Lung neoplasms
Lung cancer
Incidence
Global Burden of Disease Study
Trend
