摘要
以山西中部城市群5个地市为研究区,基于土地利用碳足迹核算模型,分析其2006—2021年土地利用碳足迹时空变化特征,结合Tapio脱钩模型分析碳足迹与GDP的脱钩弹性,运用地理探测器对碳足迹的驱动因素进行探讨。结果表明:1)山西中部城市群净碳排放量呈递增态势,太原市、晋中市和阳泉市呈“N”字波动,忻州市和吕梁市表现为直线上升。2)山西中部城市群整体上呈碳赤字状态:碳生态承载力相对稳定,介于5.60×10^(5)~6.12×10^(5)hm^(2)之间;土地利用碳足迹呈增加趋势,2021年碳足迹面积为5.46×10^(6)hm^(2)。3)碳足迹与GDP之间的脱钩状态波动性较强,经历了“扩张连接—扩张负脱钩—强脱钩—弱脱钩”。4)从影响研究区土地利用碳足迹的驱动因子来看,人口密度、城市化水平、坡度和土地利用结构是主导因子,且各项因子之间的交互作用力均大于单因子作用力,交互影响较高的协同因子是能源结构、能源强度和经济发展水平。总体,研究区碳足迹水平呈逐年增长的趋势,应推动经济绿色转型、优化能源结构,削减碳排放负面影响,结果可为山西中部优化土地利用结构、制定碳减排修复策略、实现低碳发展目标提供理论依据。
Based on the land use carbon footprint counting model,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the land use carbon footprint from 2006 to 2021 in five cities in Shanxi central urban agglomeration.The decoupling elasticity between carbon footprint and GDP is analyzed by combining the Tapio decoupling model,and the driving factors of carbon footprint are discussed by using geographic detector.The results showed that:1)The net carbon emissions of Shanxi central urban agglomeration showed an increasing trend,Taiyuan City,Jinzhong city and Yangquan city showed an N-word fluctuation,and Xinzhou City and Luliang city showed a straight rise.2)Shanxi central urban agglomeration showed a carbon deficit as a whole:the carbon ecological carrying capacity was relatively stable,ranging from 5.60×10^(5)to 6.12×10^(5)hm^(2);The land use carbon footprint showed an increasing trend,and the carbon footprint area in 2021 was 5.46×10^(6)hm^(2).3)The decoupling state between carbon footprint and GDP is highly volatile,experiencing"expansion connection-expansion negative decoupling-strong decoupling-weak decoupling".4)From the perspective of driving factors affecting the carbon footprint of land use in the study area,population density,urbanization level,slope and land use structure are the leading factors,and the interaction force among all factors is greater than the single factor force,and the cofactors with high interaction influence are energy structure,energy intensity and economic development level.Overall,the level of carbon footprint in the study area shows a trend of increasing year by year,so it is necessary to promote the green economic transformation,optimize the energy structure,and reduce the negative impact of carbon emissions.This study provides theoretical basis for optimizing land use structure,formulating carbon emission reduction and restoration strategies,and realizing low-carbon development goals in central Shanxi Province.
作者
李晓静
王霜
刘猛
LI Xiaojing;WANG Shuang;LIU Meng(School of Public Administration,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030006,China;Virtual Simulation Laboratory,School of Public Administration,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030006,China)
出处
《贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第3期74-83,共10页
Journal of Guizhou Normal University:Natural Sciences
基金
山西省自然科学基金(20210302124437)
山西省研究生科研创新项目(2023KY551)。
关键词
土地利用
碳足迹
Tapio脱钩模型
地理探测器
山西中部城市群
land use
carbon footprint
Tapio decoupling model
geographical detector
Shanxi central urban agglomeration
