摘要
探究了中国1998—2020年省级乘用车各类塑料废弃量及其时空分布特征,分析了不同因子对塑料废弃量的驱动机制,预测了未来乘用车塑料发展趋势。结果表明:1)1998—2020年,中国乘用车塑料废弃量迅速增长,从5万t增长至175万t,年均增速17.5%,在空间上,东部区域增长83.03万t,中西部分别增长45.07万、41.76万t,呈现“东多西少”的分布格局;2)塑料废弃量具有显著的空间正相关性,热点区域主要分布在以江苏为代表的东部省份,冷点区域主要分布在西藏等西部省份;3)年末总人口、国内生产总值(GDP)和城市客运周转量是主要驱动因素,因子决定力(q值)分别达0.861、0.822和0.642,多种因子共同作用于乘用车塑料废弃量的空间分布;4)未来乘用车塑料废弃量将保持增长趋势,高保有量情景增速最快且增量最多,低保有量情景增速最慢且增量最少,聚丙烯(PP)在不同情景中废弃量均为最多。研究结果从多方面量化了乘用车塑料废弃量,为废弃塑料资源回收和环境可持续性发展提供数据基础。
The amount of plastic waste and its spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of provincial passenger vehicles in China from 1998 to 2020 were explored.The driving mechanism of different factors on the amount of plastic waste was analyzed,and the future development trend of passenger vehicle plastics was predicted.The results showed that:1)From 1998 to 2020,the amount of plastic waste of passenger vehicles in China increased rapidly,from 50000 tons to 1.75 million tons,with an average annual growth rate of 17.5%.In terms of space,the eastern region increased by 830300 tons,and the central and western regions increased by 450700 tons and 417600 tons respectively,showing a distribution pattern of“more in the east and less in the west”.2)The hot spot areas were mainly distributed in the eastern provinces represented by Jiangsu,and the cold spot areas were mainly distributed in the western provinces such as Xizang.3)The total population,GDP,and urban passenger turnover at the end of the year were the main driving factors,and the factor determination force(q value)reached 0.861,0.822 and 0.642.A variety of factors worked together on the spatial distribution of plastic waste in passenger cars.4)In the future,the amount of plastic waste of passenger vehicles will maintain an increasing trend.The growth rate is the fastest and the increment is the largest in the high-ownership scenario.The growth rate is the slowest and the increment is the smallest in the low-ownership scenario.Polypropylene(PP)has the largest amount of waste in different scenarios.The results of this paper quantify the multiplication from many aspects.The results of this study quantified the amount of plastic waste in passenger cars from multiple perspectives,and provided a data basis for the recycling of waste plastic resources and the sustainable development of the environment.
作者
陈优良
陈琳
权迎香
王兆茹
CHEN Youliang;CHEN Lin;QUAN Yingxiang;WANG Zhaoru(School of Architecture and Surveying&Mapping Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000;School of Tourism Management,Ji’an Vocational and Technical College,Ji’an Jiangxi 343000;School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000)
出处
《环境污染与防治》
北大核心
2025年第6期43-52,I0002,I0003,共12页
Environmental Pollution & Control
关键词
乘用车
塑料废弃量
空间相关性
地理探测器
驱动因素
情景分析
passenger vehicle
plastic waste
spatial correlation
geographic detector
driving factor
scenario analysis
