摘要
测算我国扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革两者之间的有机结合程度,检验两者的有机结合对中国经济的影响,分析影响两者有机结合程度的驱动因素,提出促进两者有机结合的政策建议。研究发现:近年来我国扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革的有机结合程度出现阶段性下滑,对产出、消费、物价、净出口造成了负面影响;企业层面的影响因素包括工业产能利用率、规模以上企业营业成本、非金融企业杠杆率和资本形成总额等;居民消费、房地产发展和基础设施建设,也会影响扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革的有机结合。建议引导企业加大投资力度、提高企业产能利用率、降低企业经营成本与杠杆率,提升居民消费水平与质量、优化住房市场结构、加强基础设施建设等,推动扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革的有机结合,促进中国经济发展。
This study quantitatively assesses the degree of organic integration between expanding domestic demand and deepening supply-side structural reforms in China,examines their organic integration impact on the economy in China,analyzes the driving factors influencing the degree of their organic integration,and proposes policy recommendations to enhance organic integration.It reveals that the degree of organic integration between two strategies has periodic declines in recent years,exerting adverse effects on output,consumption,price levels,and net exports.At the enterprise level,influencing factors include industrial capacity utilization,operating costs of enterprises above a certain scale,non-financial corporate leverage ratios,and gross capital formation.Household consumption,real estate development,and infrastructure construction also affect integration of demand expansion and supply-side reforms.To foster their organic integration and promote China’s economic development,policy should focus on encouraging corporate investment,improving industrial capacity utilization,reducing business costs and leverage ratios,enhancing the level and quality of household consumption,optimizing housing market structures,and strengthening infrastructure development.
作者
马理
许洋滋
MA Li;XU Yangzi(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha 410006,China)
出处
《湖南大学学报(社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第3期42-51,共10页
Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)
基金
湖南省社会科学基金项目:经济政策不确定性对人民币汇率波动的多重非对称影响及预警机制研究(23JD003)
国家自然科学基金面上项目:中美货币政策分化调整对我国跨境资本流动的影响:头寸失衡、风险溢出与制度设计(72473037)
国家自然科学基金面上项目:发达国家货币政策跨国传导的复杂溢出效应:开放经济条件下的DSGE多国模型与VAR数据检验(72073042)
湖南大学金融与统计学院湘财证券宏观经济研究项目(2024056)。
关键词
扩大内需
深化供给侧结构性改革
测度
驱动因素
影响效应
expanding domestic demand
deepening supply-side structural reforms
measurement
driving factors
impact effects
