摘要
利用1991—2020年南京市国家基准站下辖六合、浦口、溧水、高淳等观测站数据以及南京市茶叶产量数据,确定了茶叶低温冻害研究时段及其天气指数保险气象指标。利用差分预测、信息扩散等方法计算出茶叶减产率以及不同低温指数发生的概率,同时分析了日最低气温与平均减产率的关系。在此基础上厘定出南京市辖区及各区不同低温等级触发条件下茶叶的纯保险费率和基准保险费率。结果表明,市辖区和高淳区的纯保险费率最高,均在4.00%以上;其次为浦口区,纯保险费率为3.25%;江宁区及溧水区的纯保险费率较低,介于1.49%~2.19%。通过分析,为保险公司开展茶叶天气指数保险提供了科学依据,同时也为茶农选择合适的保险产品提供一定的参考。
Based on the data of Liuhe,Pukou,Lishui,Gaochun and other observation stations under the jurisdiction of Nanjing National Base Station from 1991 to 2020 and the data of tea yield in Nanjing,the research period of low temperature freezing injury of tea and its weather index insurance meteorological index were determined.The yield reduction rate of tea and the probability of different low temperature indexes were calculated by means of differential prediction and information diffusion,and the relationship between daily minimum temperature and average yield reduction rate was analyzed.On this basis,the pure insurance premium rate and benchmark insurance premium rate of tea under different low temperature trigger conditions in Nanjing municipal district and each district were determined.The results showed that the pure insurance premium rate of the municipal district and Gaochun district was the highest,both above 4.00%;followed by Pukou District,the net insurance rate was 3.25%;the pure insurance premium rates in Jiangning District and Lishui District were relatively low,ranging from 1.49%to 2.19%.It provided a scientific basis for insurance companies to carry out tea weather index insurance,and also provides some reference for tea farmers to choose appropriate insurance products.
作者
刘佼
陈曲
李正金
许澍轩
项妍琨
毛宇清
LIU Jiao;CHEN Qu;LI Zheng-jin;XU Shu-xuan;XIANG Yan-kun;MAO Yu-qing(Nanjing Meteorological Bureau,Nanjing 210019,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2024年第S1期240-246,共7页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
江苏省气象局面上基金项目(KM202409)
关键词
茶叶
低温冻害
气象指数
天气指数保险
保险费率
江苏省
tea
cold injury
meteorological index
weather index insurance
insurance
rate
Jiangsu Province
