摘要
冬季电采暖可以有效促进新能源的消纳,减少弃风、弃光现象。然而,大规模电采暖设备产生的谐波会影响电网质量,因此有必要对电采暖负荷进行分析和预测,以利于电网调度及安全运行,缓解电力系统负荷调峰和调频压力。为预测电采暖负荷,以某地区电采暖实际负荷为例,分析了影响电采暖负荷变动的4个因子即稳定负荷因子、气象敏感因子、随机负荷因子、日期类型因子,得出电采暖负荷变动主要影响因子为日期类型因子和气象敏感因子。因此,建立考虑日期类型的分别基于平均温度和基于人体舒适度的最小二乘法拟合预测模型。预测结果表明,两种模型都获得了较高的预测精度,可以用于地区负荷预测。
Electric heating in winter can effectively promote the consumption of new energy and reduce wind and solar abandonment.However,the harmonics generated by large-scale electric heating equipment will affect the quality of power grid.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze and predict the electric heating load in order to alleviate the stress of grid dispatching,and relieve the load peak and frequency regulation pressure of power system.In order to predict the electric heating load,taking the actual electric heating load in a certain area for example,the four factors that affect the changes of electric heating load are analyzed,that is,stable load factor,weather sensitive factor,random load factor and date type factor.Finally,it is concluded that the main influencing factors of electric heating load changes are date type factors and weather sensitive factors.Therefore,a prediction model is established which considers the date type and is based on the average temperature and the least squares method of human comfort.The prediction results show that both models have obtained a high prediction accuracy,and both can be used for regional load forecasting.
作者
胡志豪
姚锦松
龚立娇
孙开宁
樊茂
张鹏飞
常喜强
Hu Zhihao;Yao Jinsong;Gong Lijiao;Sun Kaining;Fan Mao;Zhang Pengfei;Chang Xiqiang(School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003,Xinjiang,China;State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830000,Xinjiang,China)
出处
《四川电力技术》
2021年第2期33-37,共5页
Sichuan Electric Power Technology
关键词
负荷预测
影响因子
电采暖
最小二乘法
load forecasting
impact factor
electric heating
least squares
