摘要
由于气象因素对负荷的影响较大,在短期负荷预测中需合理考虑气象因素的影响。气温累积效应是夏季气象因素影响负荷的重要现象,是指待预测日之前若干日的气温对待预测日的负荷具有比较明显的影响,持续高温情况下影响尤其明显。对大量气象数据的分析表明,在不同条件下,累积效应的强度不同,对负荷的影响程度也不同。据此,提出了用离散的累积系数和温度修正公式来反映累积效应强度的方法,考虑了各种影响累积效应强度的因素,如待预测日的气温、高温持续天数等。实例表明,所提出的方法比较准确地反映了累积效应对负荷的影响。
Because of the significant impact of meteorological factors on the load, the accuracy of load forecasting should be enhanced by taking these factors into rational consideration. The accumulative effect is an important phenomenon of summertime meteorological factors influencing the load. It refers to the fact that the temperatures of the few days before the day to be forecast have fairly obvious influence on the load of the to-be-forecast day, the effect being especially appreciable in sustained summer heat. An analysis of large amounts of meteorological data shows that, under different conditions, the intensities of the accumulative effect are different, as are their influence on the load. For this reason, a new method is proposed to have the intensity of accumulated effect reflected by the discrete accumulated coefficient and temperature modifying formula. Various influencing factors have been considered, such as the temperature of the to-be-forecast days, the number of sustaining high-temperature days, etc. It is proved by a case study that the method proposed can fairly accurately reflect the influence of the temperature accumulative effect on the load.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第9期96-99,共4页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
关键词
短期负荷预测
气象因素
累积效应
相关系数
short-term load forecasting
meteorological factors
temperature accumulative effect
correlation coefficient
