摘要
基于中国加入WTO后美国给予中国永久性正常贸易关系作为准自然实验,构建地区层面的贸易政策不确定性指标,采用双重差分模型考察了其对人口迁移的影响效应。研究发现:第一,贸易政策不确定性下降显著促进了地区的外来人口流入,且主要是基于工作原因而迁移;第二,贸易政策不确定性下降所带来的影响存在地区分配效应,对省际迁移的影响大于省内迁移;第三,机制检验表明,贸易政策不确定性下降通过促进就业增长和提高工资推动了区域人口迁移;第四,在拓展分析部分,贸易政策不确定性下降显著提高了城市生产率,人口流动在其中发挥了重要作用。
As a distinct characteristic of the opening-up,regional migration has greatly facilitated China′s foreign trade.However,trade policy uncertainty(TPU for short)can adversely affects it.Based on the natural experiment of the U.S.granting China permanent normal trade relation after China′s entry into WTO,this paper investigates the impact of TPU on population migration by means of constructing the index of regional trade policy uncertainty and a double difference model.We find that TPU reduction significantly promotes regional population inflows,which is largely based on job-related migration.At the same time,the impact also has regional distribution effect,i.e.,inter-provincial impact is greater than intra-provincial one.In addition,based on the mechanism test,it is found that TPU promotes population migration by increasing job opportunities and the average wage.Furthermore,TPU reduction greatly promotes the urban productivity,which is primarily resulted from population mobility.The results are expected to help minimize the negative impact of TPU,for instance,the Sino-US trade friction on population migration,optimize labor area allocation,and emphasize the importance of trade in economy.
作者
赵春明
谷均怡
李宏兵
ZHAO Chun-ming;GU Jun-yi;LI Hong-bing(不详)
出处
《东南大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2021年第1期52-63,147,共13页
Journal of Southeast University(Philosophy and Social Science)
基金
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“进口贸易对我国企业性别工资差距的影响研究”(20YJA790094)
国家社科基金后期资助一般项目“贸易政策不确定性下中国外贸转型升级的劳动力市场效应研究”(19FJLB023)阶段性成果。
