摘要
结合关税与全国人口普查微观数据,通过构建Bartik工具变量解决内生性问题,从进口政策不确定性这一维度研究了主动扩大进口对地级行政区之间劳动力流动的影响。研究结果表明:进口政策不确定性更小的地级行政区,其外来劳动力比重更大。进一步的机制检验指出,进口政策不确定性通过进口增长和出口扩张2个机制吸引劳动力流入,中间投入品的进口增长在其中发挥重要作用。拓展分析还发现,较小的政策不确定性显著提高了地级行政区对外来劳动力的需求,而对本地劳动力的需求影响不显著。此外,进口政策不确定性对外来劳动力的吸引力在非户口迁移性的、农村户籍的、低技能的劳动力群体上相对更大。
By combining the tariff data and the micro-data of National Population Census,this paper solves the endogenous problem by constructing Bartik instrumental variables,and analyses the impact of ac‐tive import expansion on labor migration between prefecture-level regions from the perspective of import policy uncertainty.The results show that there is a larger share of non-resident labor in prefecture-level re‐gions with less import policy uncertainty.Further mechanism tests show that import policy uncertainty pro‐motes labor migration through the two effects of import growth and export expansion,in which the import growth of intermediate inputs plays an important role.The expansion analysis also found that the less policy uncertainty significantly increases the demand for non-resident labor,but has no significant impact on the demand for local labor.In addition,the attraction of import policy uncertainty reduction for non-resident la‐bor is relatively greater in non-hukou migrants,rural-registered,and low-skilled labor groups.
作者
苏理梅
彭冬冬
SU Limei;PENG Dongdong(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China;Department of Ecological Civilization Education,Party School of the Fujian Provincial Committee of the CPC,Fuzhou 350108,China)
出处
《常州工学院学报》
2025年第3期54-65,共12页
Journal of Changzhou Institute of Technology
基金
安徽省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目“进口政策不确定性对劳动力流动的影响机制研究”(2022AH050223)
安徽建筑大学校人文社科其他类项目“贸易摩擦背景下安徽企业技术创新战略研究”(JR202330)
福建省社会科学基金项目“以跨境电商改革助推共同富裕的路径研究”(FJ2024C029)。
关键词
进口政策不确定性
外来劳动力流入
地级行政区
中间投入品
import policy uncertainty
inflow of non-resident labor
prefecture-level region
intermediate inputs
