摘要
目的了解成都市新都区≥50岁艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者/艾滋病(AIDS)病人(简称HIV/AIDS病人)的生存时间,并探讨相关影响因素。方法通过中国艾滋病综合防治信息系统下载2008-2017年报告现住址为新都区且年龄≥50岁的HIV/AIDS病例资料,计算病死率和累计生存概率,采用COX比例风险回归模型分析死亡的相关影响因素。结果新都区2008-2017年累计报告HIV/AIDS病人431例,死亡115例,占26.68%。病死率从2008年0升至2011年57.14%,后降至2017年14.75%。死亡者均为汉族,以60~69岁为主,占38.26%,男性占83.48%,未婚/离异/丧偶者占63.48%,61.74%为农民/工人,小学及以下占65.22%,94.78%为异性性传播,8.70%有性病史。≥50岁HIV阳性人群的平均生存时间为5.08年[95%可信区间(CI):4.55~5.61年],1、3、5年累计生存概率分别为78.18%、66.00%、53.09%。COX回归分析显示,年龄和首次CD4+T淋巴细胞计数是≥50岁HIV/AIDS病人死亡的影响因素。结论成都市新都区≥50岁HIV/AIDS死亡病例以男性为主,未婚/离异/丧偶比例高且文化程度偏低,≥50岁HIV/AIDS病例死亡风险高,与其年龄和首次CD4+T淋巴细胞计数有关。
Objective To understand the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases aged≥50 years in Xindu district of Chengdu city,and to explore the influencing factors.Methods The data of HIV/AIDS cases reported in Xindu from 2008 to 2017 were downloaded through the National Prevention and Control Information System of AIDS.The fatality rate and cumulative survival probability were calculated.Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of death.Results 431 HIV/AIDS cases were reported during 2008-2017,with 115 deaths(26.68%).The fatality rate increased gradually from 0.00%in 2008 to 57.14%in 2011 and then decreased to 14.75%in 2017.The majority of the deaths were between 60-69 years old,accounting for 38.26%.Among the deaths,83.48%were male,and 63.48%were unmarried,and divorced or widowed.61.74%were the peasants and the workers.All the deaths were the Hans,and 65.22%cases received primary school education and below.94.78%of the deaths were infected HIV via heterosexual transmission,and 8.70%had developed sexually transmitted diseases.The average survival time of HIV-positive people aged≥50 years was 5.08 years(95%CI:4.55-5.61 years).The cumulative survival probability of the first 1,3 and 5 years was 78.18%,66.00%and 53.09%,respectively.Cox regression analysis showed that age and the baseline CD4+T lymphocyte count were the influencing factors of the mortality.Conclusion The deaths of HIV/AIDS cases aged≥50 are mainly male in Xindu district of Chengdu,with high proportion of the unmarried or divorced/widowed individuals and low level of education.They have a higher risk of death,which is mainly associated with their age and the baseline CD4+T lymphocyte count.
作者
周宗磊
吕伟超
周茹珍
厉坤鹏
ZHOU Zonglei;LYU Weichao;ZHOU Ruzhen;LI Kunpeng(West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610041,China;Xindu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610500;Changhai Hospital of Shanghai,Shanghai 200433;Shanghai Second Rehabilitation Hospital,Shanghai 200441)
出处
《中国艾滋病性病》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第7期760-762,776,共4页
Chinese Journal of Aids & STD
