摘要
为合理复用已有经验和知识,提升案例推理技术在突发灾害事故应急决策领域的应用效果,提出了一种基于情景元的案例推理方法。首先,在界定突发灾害事故情景概念的基础上,从时间及空间维度对灾害事故情景进行分析,定义了"情景元"的概念。然后,优化相似度计算方法,以"情景元"为单位进行相似度匹配,获取相似情景元,通过参考相似情景元的处置方式实现决策支持。最后,基于该方法以大连"7·16"中石油储运公司油库火灾事故为例,选择近年来发生的若干典型案例构建案例库,演示基于情景元的案例推理方法的具体流程,验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。
This paper intends to propose a case-based reasoning method on the scenario elements by combining the scenario analysis with the case-based reasoning for emergency decision-making needs. To achieve the purpose,we have,first of all,been trying to combine the definitions concerned with the research progress made by the other previous researchers,so as to define the concept of the sudden disaster accident scenarios. On the said basis,the paper has also made an analysis of the disaster accident scenarios from the point of view of time and space dimensions so as to define clearly the above said concept. The said concept of"scenario element"can be represented by a group of 4 factors,that is,the"hazard factor","the disaster-bearing body","the disaster situation"and"the disaster-prone environment". And,then,the paper tries to optimize the similarity calculation method by combining the method of expert scoring with the cloud model,with the weight of the element cloud being taken into account.Through the above said combination of the similarity of the element with the structural similarity,it would be possible to gain the overall similarity of the scenario elements. And,furthermore,the similarity matching can be performed in units of"scenario elements " to obtain the similar historical scenario elements. And,finally,based on the said method,we have taken Dalian"7·16"storage tank accident as a case study sample for verification. The scenario of the accident can thus be divided into 6 scenario elements,with the scenario element "oil pipeline leaking explosion"being taken as a typical sampling case. By extracting the set of the scenario element factors,we have also managed to gain the comparative weights of the factors concerned to match the similarity with the historical scenario elements in the case library. And,in turn,the emergency response can be effectively assisted by retrieving the disposal plan of the similar scenario element. Among them,the most similar element factor to that of the target scenario one is the pipeline explosion scenario element in Huizhou "7 ·11 "accident,and the similarity rate turns out to be equal at about 70. 21%. Thus,the sampling case proves that the method can effectively reuse the previous disposal experience,improve the usability by sharing of the previous gained experience to provide a new idea for the auxiliary decision-making for the sudden disasters.
作者
夏登友
李丞曜
朱毅
薛腾
XIA Deng-you;LI Cheng-yao;ZHU Yi;XUE Teng(Department of Fire Command,China Peoples’Police University,Langfang 065000,Hebei,China;Department of Graduate,China People’s Police University,Langfang 065000,Hebei,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期1028-1033,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0804706)。
关键词
安全管理工程
突发灾害事故
案例推理
情景元
应急决策
safety control
emergency disaster accident
case based reasoning
scenario element
emergency decision-making
