摘要
由于自然灾害事件具有突发性、链式反应等特点,为了让决策者能够在有限时间内从历史案例中快速获取可借鉴的应对经验,提出了面向自然灾害链的动态应急方案生成方法。首先,根据自然灾害时空特点构建三维立体历史案例库,设计了案例库三维结构和四元编码案例存储模式;其次,利用案例推理(Case-Based Reasoning,CBR)的方法计算综合相似度,得到最为相似的历史案例及应急方案;然后,为了更好地实现应急方案的动态调整,根据Petri网构建自然灾害链网络演化路径图,分析触发因素中发生概率最大的因素及关键路径,实现对初始应急方案的动态调整和补充;最后,以暴雨灾害链为例验证了该方法的有效性。
Natural disaster events are marked by their suddenness and potential for chain reactions.To assist decision-makers in swiftly accessing relevant response experiences from historical cases within a limited timeframe,this paper presents a method for dynamically generating emergency response programs for natural disaster chains.Firstly,acknowledging the diversity of natural disaster types and their varying spatial and temporal distributions,we construct a three-dimensional historical case database for geohazard chains.This database is designed based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural disasters,incorporating a three-dimensional structure and a quaternary coding storage mode for the cases.Secondly,we employ the Case-Based Reasoning(CBR)method to compute the comprehensive similarity value between historical and target cases,allowing us to identify the most similar historical cases and emergency response plans for a quick and efficient retrieval process.Then,to better achieve the dynamic adjustment of the emergency response plan,we utilize the triggering factors and disaster scenarios of disaster chain events to construct a complex network evolution path diagram of the natural disaster chain based on the Petri net.We analyze the factors with the highest probability of occurrence among the triggering factors and critical paths,identify the critical paths and nodes in the disaster chain,and perform dynamic tracking to analyze the evolution of the chain and the direction of the initial emergency response.This allows us to realize the evolution of the initial emergency response plan and subsequently enables the dynamic adjustment and supplementation of the initial emergency program.The paper further explores the validation of the proposed method through a case study of a rainstorm disaster chain.This case study illustrates the method s effectiveness in generating and adjusting emergency plans in response to the dynamic nature of natural disasters.The results indicate that the method can significantly enhance the responsiveness and effectiveness of disaster response strategies,offering a practical tool for emergency management.The novelty of the proposed method lies in its integration of historical case analysis with dynamic system modeling,providing a robust framework for the real-time generation and adjustment of emergency plans.This research contributes significantly to the field by offering a practical tool that enhances decision-making processes during emergencies.The validation of the method through the case study of the rainstorm disaster chain confirms its practical applicability and potential for integration into real-world emergency management systems.
作者
黎金玲
郭海湘
姚鑫
于峰
蔡云宇
刘雅凝
LI Jinling;GUO Haixiang;YAO Xin;YU Feng;CAI Yunyu;LIU Yaning(School of Economics and Management,Hubei University of Education,Wuhan 430205,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;Laboratory of Natural Disaster Risk Prevention,Control and Emergency Management,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期2301-2311,共11页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72074198)
国家社会科学基金重点项目(23AZD072)
湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目(2024AFA015)。
关键词
公共安全
自然灾害链
案例推理
PETRI网
应急方案
public safety
natural disaster chain
case-based reasoning
Petri nets
emergency programs
