摘要
旅游业与城市化对区域经济的影响趋于明显,二者之间的关系也广受学者的关注。在"丝绸之路经济带"建设的新形势下,乌鲁木齐作为西部的桥头堡城市,确定二者之间的因果关系对经济发展方式和社会稳定具有重要意义。本文采用格兰杰因果关系检验、VAR模型、方差分解等模型,对乌鲁木齐市1997-2016年城市化与旅游业指标体系进行加权,实证分析二者发展的响应程度。结果显示:①自1997年以来,乌鲁木齐市城市化发展进度与旅游业经历了非同步发展的演变过程;②旅游业是城市化发展的格兰杰原因,城市化却不是旅游业发展的格兰杰原因,二者只存在单向关系;③城市化发展水平的高低对旅游业的脉冲响应和方差贡献影响显著;反之,旅游业发展水平对城市化的脉冲响应和方差贡献则不明显。综上,利用定量实证分析乌鲁木齐市城市化与旅游业,探究其内部发展原因对其城市定位与发展具有重要意义。
The relationship between urbanization and tourism has long received widespread attention in the academic community. Under the new situation of the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt", Urumqi, as the bridgehead city in the west, determines the causal relationship between the two is of great significance to the economic development mode and social stability. In this paper, Granger causality test, VAR model,variance decomposition and other models are used to weight the urbanization and tourism index system of Urumqi from 1997 to 2016, and empirically analyze the response degree of the two developments. The results show that: ①Since 1997, the progress of urbanization development and tourism in Urumqi has experienced the evolution of non-synchronous development;②there is a one-way causal relationship between tourism and urbanization,that is, the level of tourism development is urbanization. The Granger reason for the development level,the degree of tourism response to urbanization is significantly different;③the level of urbanization development is proportional to the impulse response and variance contribution of tourism, while the development level of tourism to the pulse of urbanization Response and variance contributions are not obvious. In summary, using quantitative empirical analysis of Urumqi’s urbanization and tourism, and exploring its internal development reasons is of great significance to its urban positioning and development.
作者
张利萍
孜比布拉·司马义
杨小东
ZHANG Li-ping;Zibibula·Simayi;YANG Xiao-dong(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Xinjiang University,830046,Urumqi,Xinjiang,China;Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modeling,College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Xinjiang University,830046,Urumqi,Xinjiang,China;Key Laboratory of,Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology,Ministry,College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Xinjiang University,830046,Urumqi,Xinjiang,China)
出处
《特区经济》
2020年第6期115-121,共7页
Special Zone Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“新疆南疆城市犯罪的时空分布特征及影响机制”(批准号:41661036)
“艾比湖稀缺资料流域水文变化分析与水资源利用安全范式”(批准号:U1603241)。
