摘要
目的估计北京市流感流行阈值和分级强度阈值,对2018-2019年流行季流感流行水平进行分级预警,并对估计阈值的方法进行评价。方法应用北京市近5个流感流行季的流感样病例数和流感样病例百分比(ILI%)监测数据,采用移动流行区间法(MEM)估计流感流行阈值和分级强度阈值。应用交叉验证方法评价MEM与2种监测数据类型估计流行阈值的预警效果,评价指标为马修相关系数、约登指数、灵敏度和特异度。结果估计预警2018-2019年流行季的流感样病例数的流行阈值为12984例、中位强度阈值为22503例、高强度阈值为37589例、超高强度阈值为47157例,评价流行阈值的指标马修相关系数为62%、约登指数为60%、灵敏度为69%、特异度为91%。应用ILI%监测数据,估计预警2018-2019年流行季流感流行阈值、中位强度阈值、高强度阈值及超高强度阈值分别为1.66%、2.46%、3.84%和4.66%,评价流行阈值的指标马修相关系数为59%、约登指数为54%、灵敏度为60%、特异度为94%。结论MEM对预警流感流行有较好特异性,准确性在可接受范围内,该方法可在北京市流感分级预警中进行实际应用。应用流感样病例数监测资料预警效果略优于ILI%。
Objective To calculate both the epidemic and intensity thresholds for different levels in Beijing and to establish a tiered alert system in the 2018-2019 influenza season as well as to evaluate the performance of calculated thresholds.Method Weekly count of influenza-like illness and percentage of influenza-like illness(ILI%)of the last five influenza seasons were modeled by'moving epidemic method’(MEM)to calculate the influenza epidemic and intensity thresholds at different levels.A cross-validation procedure was used to evaluate the performance.Indicators of Matthew correlation coefficient,Youden’s index,sensitivity and specificity were calculated.Results For weekly count of influenza-like illness,data showed that the epidemic threshold for 2018-2019 influenza season was 12984 and the medium,high and very high intensity thresholds were 22503,37589,47157,respectively.Matthew correlation coefficient of the epidemic threshold was 62%and youden’s index as 60%,sensitivity as 69%,specificity as 91%.Data on weekly ILI%,the epidemic threshold for 2018-2019 influenza season was 1.66%,with medium,high and very high intensity thresholds as 2.46%,3.84%and 4.66%,respectively.The overall Matthew correlation coefficient of the epidemic threshold was 59%,with 54%for the Youden’s index,sensitivity as 60%and specificity as 94%.Conclusions MEM produced a good specific signal for detecting the influenza epidemics and the accuracy of the method was acceptable.The early warning performance regarding the application of weekly count on influenza-like illness was slightly better than ILI%.This method could be applied in the practical influenza epidemic alert"work in Beijing".
作者
王宇
张莉
吴双胜
段玮
孙瑛
张漫
张惺惺
张奕
马春娜
王全意
杨鹏
Wang Yu;Zhang Li;Wu Shuangsheng;Duan Wei;Sun Ying;Zhang Man;Zhang Xingxing;Zhang Yi;Ma Chunna;Wang Quanyi;Yang Peng(Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control,Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine,Beijing 100013,China;School of Public Health,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069,China)
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期201-206,共6页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
基金
北京市优秀人才培养资助青年拔尖个人项目(2014000021223ZK36)
首都卫生发展科研专项(2018-2-1013)。
关键词
流感
阈值
强度
移动流行区间法
交叉验证
Influenza
Threshold
Intensity
Moving epidemic method
Cross-validation procedure
