摘要
以2003--2017年云南省统计局对于云南省农业的种植、林、牧、渔和农林牧渔服务五个农业产业统计数据为基础,通过灰色关联度分析,得出2003--2017年,云南省农业五个产业产值与农业总产值的灰色关联度分别为0.800、0.585、0.753、0635和0.570,以种植业为主导,牧、渔、林和服务业逐次递减。通过建立GM(1,1)预测模型得出,在今后十年中,五个农业产业的产值顺序依次为种植、畜牧、林、农林牧渔服务和渔。种植业的主导地位不会改变,林业产值占比略有降低,呈下降趋势,畜牧业产值占比略有上升,呈上升趋势,渔业和农林牧渔服务业发展稳定,占总产值的比例基本不变。
Based on the statistical data of Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics on agriculture cultivation,forest,animal husbandry,fishery,and agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery service in 2003-2017,it is concluded that in 2003--2017,the grey correlation between the five industries of agriculture,for⁃estry,animal husbandry service and fi shery service and total agricultural output value of Yunnan Province was 0.800,0.585,0.753,0635 and 0.570 respectively.Through the establishment of GM(1,1)prediction model,it is found that in the next ten years,the order of output value of the five agricultural industries is planting,animal husbandry,forestry,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery.The dominant position of planting industry will not change,the proportion of forestry output value will decrease slightly,and the pro⁃portion of animal husbandry output value will rise slightly,and the proportion of animal husbandry output val⁃ue will rise slightly,and the development of fishery,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery ser⁃vice industry will be stable,and the proportion of total output value will remain basically unchanged.
作者
石建辉
SHI Jianhui(School of Economics and Management,Yunnan Agricultural University Kunming,Yunnan 650100)
出处
《现代农业研究》
2020年第1期40-44,共5页
Modern Agriculture Research
关键词
农业产业结构
农业产值
灰色关联分析法
GM(1
1)模型
agricultural industrial structure
agricultural output value
grey relational analysis
GM(1
1)model
