摘要
选取2006—2017年中国与“一带一路”沿线28个国家的面板数据,从互联互通视角,构建中国对“一带一路”沿线国家农产品出口的时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型,测算并分析中国对沿线国家农产品出口的贸易效率及主要影响因素,预测出口潜力及拓展空间。研究结果表明,中国与沿线国的经济规模、伙伴国的人口规模以及使用共同语言均对农产品出口具有显著正向影响,中国的人口规模、两国的地理距离均对农产品出口具有显著负向影响。政府效能、自贸协定、班轮运输连通性、铁路货物运输量、贸易自由度、进口清关时间、货币与金融自由度均对贸易效率具有促进作用,文化差异和政体水平差异均对贸易效率具有阻碍作用。中国对沿线国家农产品出口的贸易效率总体还处于较低水平,这表明中国与这些国家和地区的贸易潜力较大,未来具有广阔的拓展空间。
With the panel data of China and 28 countries along the Belt and Road from 2006 to 2017 and from the perspective of connectivity,we construct the stochastic frontier gravity model and trade non-efficiency model of agricultural products export.Then,we analyze the trade efficiency,export potential and expansion space.The results show that the economic scale,the population size of partner countries and the common language all have a significant positive impact on the export of agricultural products.China’s population size and geographical distance have a significant negative impact.Government efficiency,free trade agreement,liner transportation,railway transportation,trade freedom,import clearance time,currency and financial freedom all promote trade efficiency,while cultural difference and polity level difference hinder it.The trade efficiency is still at a low level on the whole.It shows that China has great potential for trade with this region.
作者
党琳静
赵景峰
DANG Linjing;ZHAO Jingfeng(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi’an 710069;School of Economics and Management,Weinan Normal University, Weinan,Shaanxi 714099;Chinese Western Economic Development Research Center,Northwest University,Xi’an 710069,China)
出处
《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期128-136,共9页
Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(15JJD790025)
渭南师范学院经济学省级一流培育项目(302518002)
关键词
“一带一路”
农产品出口
随机前沿分析
贸易效率
贸易潜力
the Belt and Road
export of agricultural products
stochastic frontier analysis
trade efficiency
trade potential
