摘要
选取2004—2018年的面板数据,运用随机前沿引力模型测算出中国对东盟国家的农产品出口效率,进一步构建农产品出口非效率模型,对影响出口效率的因素进行分析。实证结果表明:中国对东盟国家农产品出口效率平均值在0.525—0.798范围内,总体呈波动上升趋势;客观因素方面,中国与东盟各国之间的地理距离对中国农产品出口贸易起到显著抑制作用,而双方的经济规模和市场需求规模则能显著地促进农产品出口;主观因素方面,进口国清关程序的效率、贸易相关基础设施指数、金融自由度能够明显地提升农产品出口效率,而加权关税、国际金融危机则是中国农产品出口的阻力因素。为推动双方农产品贸易的发展,中国应当加快农产品的供给侧结构性改革,与东盟国家共同努力,不断提高贸易便利化程度,完善金融服务,建立应对突发事件的应急机制。
Based on the panel data from 2004 to 2018,this paper calculates the export efficiency of China’s agricultural products to ASEAN countries by using the stochastic frontier gravity model,and further constructs the non-efficiency model of agricultural exports to analyze the factors affecting the export efficiency.The empirical results show that,on the whole,the average export efficiency of China’s agricultural products to ASEAN countries is in the range of 0.525-0.798,showing a fluctuating upward trend;in terms of objective factors,the geographical distance between China and ASEAN countries has a significant inhibitory effect on China’s agricultural exports,while the economic scale and market demand scale of both sides can significantly promote agricultural exports;In terms of subjective factors,the efficiency of customs clearance procedures,trade-related infrastructure index and financial freedom of importing countries can significantly improve the efficiency of agricultural exports,while weighted tariffs and international financial crisis are the resistance factors of China’s agricultural exports.Finally,in order to promote the development of bilateral agricultural trade,China should speed up the supply-side structural reform of agricultural products,and work with ASEAN countries to improve trade facilitation,improve financial services and establish an emergency response mechanism.
作者
潘紫燕
张玉玲
胡德顺
Pan Ziyan;Zhang Yuling;Hu Deshun(School of Economics,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,Xinjiang,China)
关键词
东盟国家
农产品出口
非效率模型
随机前沿分析
ASEAN countries
agricultural exports
non-efficiency model
stochastic frontier analysis
